Will anti-incumbency play an important role in Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023?

The electorate in Madhya Pradesh voted to elect a new government on November 17 and the counting of votes will take place on December 3, 2023. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress are the main contenders for power apart from political parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) who want to make their presence felt.

Anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh?

The BJP is currently facing a significant challenge in overcoming the anti-incumbency factor that has been building up over nearly four terms, with the exception of a 15-month period from December 2018 to March 2020 when the Congress was in power. On the other hand, the Congress is attempting to take advantage of what it perceives as public resentment against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government on a variety of issues.

After three consecutive triumphs in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections in 2003, 2008 and 2013, the saffron party lost to Congress in 2018 but managed to return to power in March 2020 when the Kamal Nath-led government collapsed.

All these years, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan remained the face of the party. However, this time, in a change of strategy, BJP has fielded three Union Ministers and four MPs in an attempt to blunt anti-incumbency against Chouhan. The presence of several senior BJP leaders has also left the field wide open for chief ministerial aspirants.

Although the Congress party has declared Kamal Nath, a veteran leader, as its CM candidate, the BJP has not yet announced any clear stance on the matter. Despite that, Chief Minister Chouhan remains the most popular figure among the state leaders.

The grand old party's campaign relied on alleged corruption under BJP rule. The opposition party has claimed in Karnataka it was "40 percent commission" government when the BJP was in power, but in Madhya Pradesh it is "50 percent" cut. The party also listed over 250 "major scams'' during 18 years of the BJP rule.