Aliens would not be contacted by humans for another 4 lakh years, says new research

The question of if we are alone in the universe is simple yet significant considering the innumerable Earth-like planets which are scattered across the cosmos. Although there is no solid evidence of alien life out there, scientists such as Michio Kaku are optimistic that we might make contact with the unknown soon enough. However, a recently published research paper suggests the contrary claiming that humans may not hear from aliens for another four lakh years. 

Published in The Astrophysical Journal, the paper has been prepared by Beijing Normal University experts Wenjie Song and He Gao. The scientist duo made this estimation through the Drake equation to calculate the number of Communicating Extraterrestrial Intelligent Civilizations (CETIs). A CETI, according to scientists, is an alien civilisation that not only exists somewhere in the universe but is capable enough to communicate. 

What is the Drake equation?

Proposed by radio astronomer Frank Drake in 1961, the Drake equation is basically a probabilistic equation, which is used to calculate the number of alien civilisations capable of establishing communication. The equation requires several variables relating to alien civilisations to get the desired results about the CETIs. And since scientists do not have any confirmed numbers for the variable, the equation has not been the most useful. However, many believe that the Drake equation provides a starting point in the hunt for alien civilisations. 

No alien contact for another 4,00,000 years?

As mentioned above, the researchers of the new study have predicted that humans might not be able to contact aliens for another 4,00,000 years. Notably, this number is double the amount of what humans have spent on Earth- approximately 2,00,000 years. According to the calculations through the Drake equation, the scientists concluded that if there is a star having habitable planets around it, a CETI would emerge as early as 25% of the star's lifetime. However, only 0.1% of those planets would have scope for the evolution of life forms into a CETI.

They also predicted that there might be around 42,000 CETIs at different stages across our galaxy but it would take 2,000 years on average when establishment of two-way communication would begin. Earlier this month, we reported about a team of scientists led by NASA preparing to beam ciphered messages into outer space for aliens to find it. Named the ‘Beacon in the Galaxy’, the message includes several components including DNA samples and symbolises another human attempt to reach out to extraterrestrial life, if any.