'Human society collapse' prediction from MIT 1972 study may have come true: New study

A 1972 MIT study from the mid 21st century that predicted the collapse of the society due to rapid economic growth may be on schedule, a report carried by Vice on Tuesday claimed, citing a recent analysis by a director at one of the largest accounting firms. The study, which is decades old, highlighted the risks of the collapse of the industrial civilization due to the ‘limits to growth’ (LtG) which was based on the system dynamics model designed by the Club of Rome. 

The 1972 study predicted the industrial civilization which was on track to collapse sometime within the 21st century due to exhaustion of the planetary resources, vice reported, adding that controversial MIT analysis that had at the time sparked a debate has seemingly been released as the economic meltdown gripped the world amid the novel coronavirus pandemic. The findings in 1972 may have been ‘misrepresented,’ the report claimed, as it added that the senior director at professional services giant KPMG,  'big four' accounting firms, has now received approval. 

The new study was authored by Gaya Herrington, a Sustainability and Dynamic System Analysis Lead at US’ KPMG firm. Published in Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology in November 2020, around the time when the pandemic hit, the study highlighted how the business-as-usual trajectory across the globe declined as the economic growth slumped due to the pandemic comparing it with MIT predictions. The industrial growth may face a “societal collapse by around 2040,” it claimed. The prediction, it stated, was backed by the analysis done by the global corporate entities that studied the ‘limits to growth’ model, then compared how well the MIT model had stood the test of time. 

Without business-as-usual, growth not possible, MIT study predicted

Because the MIT 1972 study carried the unappealing prospect of collapse, it called for a fresh analysis by comparing it with empirical data today, author Gaya Herrington stated in Yale’s study, as cited by Vice. Furthermore, she added, that the several decades of empirical data made the comparison logical. The study titled ‘Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data’ assessed MIT’s ‘World3’ model and found that it most accurately represented current economic scenarios.

In her recent analysis, Herrington examined data across 10 key variables, industrial output, food production, services, population, fertility rates, mortality rates, non-renewable resources, ecological footprint, persistent pollution, and human welfare. The data showed similarity in two aspects: ‘BAU2’ (business-as-usual) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology) both of which depict the halt in growth within a decade.

MIT’s model asserts that without the business, as usual, continuous growth would not be possible, the author claimed, citing the current pandemic situation. MIT World3, hence, did not mean that  humanity would cease to exist, but the “economic and industrial growth will stop.” However the author stressed that the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic that halted industrial growth demonstrates that humans are capable of “responding rapidly”.