Will SpaceX launch today: Crew Dragon launch probability based on the weather

The SpaceX and NASA collaboration is one of the most ambitious projects which can be deemed as a historic moment in space exploration. NASA and SpaceX are all set to launch American astronauts from the American soil in American equipment for the first time in nearly a decade. The initial launch of Crew Dragon was to be commenced on May 27, 2020 but had to be cancelled due to weather conditions. The launch was then rescheduled for May 30 along with a backup launch window for May 31, 2020. But, will the weather allow Crew Dragon to set off for a smooth flight? 

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SpaceX-NASA Crew Dragon launch probability 

THe SpaceX-NASA Crew Dragon is now scheduled to launch from the Kennedy Space Station in Florida at 3:22 PM ET i.e 12:52 AM. For the backup launch window on May 31, 2020, Crew Dragon is expected to take flight at 3:00 PM ET i.e 12:30 AM. The US Air Force's 45th Space Wing has reportedly predicted that there 50% chances of unfavourable weather conditions which could hold the Crew Dragon back from launching to the International Space Station. 

Also read: SpaceX Crew Dragon launch: No decision on next attempt for historic mission

Image courtesy - SpaceX official Instagram

As per reports, the Crew Dragon Demo-2 mission launch could face issues due to weather conditions on both May 30 and May 31 respectively. The forecast suggests that rains, anvil and cumulus clouds are the primary concerns which could affect the launch of Crew Dragon. Reports suggest that there are 50% chances of weather violations on May 31, consistent with the percentage reported during the initial launch, which was later called-off. 

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Image courtesy - SpaceX official Instagram

The bad weather in Florida has been triggered by the tropical storm Bertha which led to landfall in South Carolina recently. But the Bertha storm does not pose a threat to Florida's Space Coast as it is expected to dissipate soon. As per reports, NASA and SpaceX are not just looking for the perfect weather to launch Crew Dragon at the launch site but also require the weather to be adequate downrange in order for the astronauts to splash down into the Atlantic ocean in a capsule if anything goes wrong during the flight. If the weather is not favourable for the launch to take place, SpaceX is expected to push it to the first week of June, but no details of the backup launch windows have been made public yet. 

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