India Qualification Scenario for T20 World Cup semifinals: Only 1 way India can fail to reach semis

Despite winning both its Super 8 matches till now, Team India are still not through to the semi-final of the T20 World Cup 2024. They are at the top in the Group 1 standings but a qualification has not yet been confirmed. Had Australia defeated Afghanistan, then India had progressed seamlessly with two wins itself. However, since the opposite has transpired in the AUS vs AFG game, there are still grim but realistic chances that India could get eliminated from the Super 8 stage.

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Afghanistan's victory over Australia has put India's qualification to a pause

After attaining convincing victories over Afghanistan and Bangladesh, Team India are leading its group and carries an excellent net run rate. Yet a qualification is afar. Afghanistan's sublime win of 21 runs over Australia has opened the group, and they have entered contention for a top-2 finish in the group. Thus, from a two-horse race it has become a three-team battle between India, Australia, and Afghanistan for the prized two semi-final spots. 

Nevertheless, Rohit Sharma's men are still the bet for the semi-final spot, but there exists a daunting scenario that can end India's campaign in the Super 8 stage itself.

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How can India get eliminated from T20 World Cup 2024?

India's elimination would depend on how Afghanistan and Australia perform in the respective left-out match. Afghanistan are scheduled to play Bangladesh on June 25, whereas Australia will square off against India on Monday, June 24. Both Bangladesh and Australia would have to win their matches. Their combined victory margin should be 123 runs. For example, If Australia beat India by 31 runs then Afghanistan would have to pull off a 93-run margin victory over Bangladesh. If these cases meet, then India would be eliminated. In any other case, India are going through.

Team India's official qualification for Semi Finals

Team India will undisturbedly qualify if they beat Australia or if the India vs Australia match gets abandoned. In case the loss comes, Rohit Sharma's men have to make sure that the loss margin is less than 41 runs. When batting first, they have to stop Australia from chasing down the score in 14.5 overs.

In the rare case if the aforementioned does not happen. Then India would have to count on Bangladesh's victory over Afghanistan. If Afghanistan win then the victory margin should be less than 80 runs and when batting first, Bangladesh would have to stop Afghanistan from chasing down the score in 9.2 overs.