Oxford study: Tokyo Olympics are most costly Summer Games

Tokyo Olympics are alrey most expensive Summer Games on record with costs set to go higher, a wide-ranging study from Britain's University of Oxford indicates.

Tokyo cost overrun alrey exceeds 200%, le author Bent Flyvbjerg explained in an interview with Associated Press. This is even before several billion more dollars are ded on from one-year delay from COVID-19 pandemic.

Flyvbjerg is an ecomist at Oxford's Said Business School. His entire study is available here , and it's set to be published on Sept. 15 in journal “Environment and Planning A: Ecomy and ." It's titled “Regression to Tail: Why Olympics Blow Up.”

Tokyo, postponed until July 23, 2021, is only a small part of focus. study — third in a series following editions 2012 and 2016 — looks at Olympic costs since 1960 and finds y keep increasing despite claims by International Olympic Committee that costs are being cut.

Flyvbjerg cites many reasons for rising costs and cost overruns, and offers solutions for IOC. vast majority of costs are picked up by governments with IOC contributing only a small portion.

“ Olympics offer highest level of risk a city can take on," Flyvbjerg told AP. " trend cant continue. city will want to do this because it’s just too expensive, putting mselves into a debt that most cities cant afford.”

In his paper, Flyvbjerg cites Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, whose city is to hold 2028 Olympics following Paris in 2024.

“Most cities, unless you have a government that’s willing to go into debt or pay subsidy of what this costs, most cities will never say ‘yes’ to Olympics again unless y find right model," he quotes Garcetti as saying.

By right model, Garcetti means lower costs.

Tracking Olympic costs is difficult, a dense maze of overlap and debate. Politicians and organizers always argue over what are — and what are t — Olympic expenses.

Flyvbjerg writes: “Unfortunatley, Olympics officials and hosts often misinform about costs and cost overruns of Games. ... We refore cant count on organizers, IOC, and governments to provide us with reliable information about real costs, cost overruns, and cost risks of Olympic Games."

Flyvbjerg looks only at costs to operate games — operating costs and capital costs — cost to build sports venues. He leaves out a third category, which is usually many times larger: revating ros, building airports, and what he calls “sprucing up projects,” which also fall to taxpayers.

“Our estimates are conservative because re are lots of costs that are hidden that we can't get into,” Flyvbjerg said. "And re are lots of costs we decided t to include because it’s too complex. We include things we can get most reliable numbers for and we do it in same way for each city that we study.”

He also excludes cost of debt, and future cost of running sports venues after Olympics leave, and inflation.

According to Oxford numbers. Tokyo's spending is at $15.84 billion, alrey surpassing 2012 London Olympics, which were most expensive summer games to date at $14.95 billion. He expects several billion more from cost of one-year delay.

Tokyo organizers say officially y are spending $12.6 billion. However, a national auditor says actual costs are twice that high, me up of some expenses that Oxford study omits because y are t constant between different Olympics.

Tokyo said cost would be $7.3 billion when it won bid in 2013.

“y (IOC) obviously don't like our results, but it’s very difficult to counter a piece of rigorous research like this," Flyvbjerg said. "And y haven’t done that, and y can't do that. Our research is a problem for m.”

In an email to Associated Press, IOC said it h t seen latest Oxford study and declined to comment.It referenced ar study by Mainz and Sorbonne universities.

This study also found Olympic cost overruns but said y were in line with or large-scale projects. Flyvbjerg's study finds y are t.

Flyvbjerg said he has been in touch on and off with IOC and h sent a colleague to an IOC workshop. He said a major reason for rising costs is that IOC does t pay for m. He also cited rising security costs, and moving games around world. He calls this “Eternal Beginner Syndrome” with new host cities starting basically from scratch.

He's said IOC has tried recently to rein in costs, but effort is “too little, too late.”

“y (IOC) define specs but don’t pay for m,”Flyvbjerg said. “This is pretty similar to you and I giving specs for a house that we are going to live in, but we don’t have to pay for it. How do you think we’d spend? We’d gold-plate it. This is what has happened over time."

Flyvbjerg said he's relish a chance to sit and talk with IOC President Thomas Bach. He calls himself a fan of Olympics.

"It's t that IOC hasn’t been willing to talk, or I am t willing to talk,"he said. “We certainly are. We have communicated in writing to keep IOC informed. But yes, we would like to sit down with Thomas Bach.”

Im credits: AP