Germany: Coronavirus spread worsens as country prepares to lift lockdown

In latest development,  rate of infection of COVID-19 in Germany jumped back to about 1.0 ahe of decision of easing restrictions on May 6, as per Germany’s official disease tracker data. This implies that transmission of vel coronavirus has again picked up with each infected person transmitting virus to at least one or person relatively causing a spike in coronavirus cases. Germany h mand to dip rate of infection in recent past, according to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for disease control reports. 

Late on Tuesday, April 28, Germany’s ministers and virologists scrambled to explore potentials means to wedge rate below 1.0. As earlier, Chancellor Angela Merkel h warned Germany's federal states to “reopen” just yet when nation’s infection rate h sunk as low as 0.7, with a considerable decline in mortality rate, local media reports confirmed. However, as of April 28, with some essential operation resumptions, rate shot up to a disturbing 3.8 percent, as per  RKI figures.  

Flattening curve 

Basis pandemic modelling, term researchers use, “curve” is attributed to  projections of cases and deaths due to  COVID-19 over a period of time. refore, different shapes of curve predict virus infection rate, as per scientists and health researchers. steep curve, in which virus spres exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate), and number of cases skyrockets to its peak.

However, flattening curve assumes same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time, according to reports. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system. A controlled transmission rate, as derived from  epidemic trend in Wuhan, China, is ideal below 0.9, as per open access scientific research by health expert Huwen Wang.  

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Merkel concerned

refore, with infection rate at 0.7 Health Minister of Germany, Jens Spahn, earlier in April, declared pandemic "under control" and chancellor Merkel and state premiers agreed to resume smaller essential businesses, as per media reports. However, with  less encouraging data, Merkel pleas to states t to rush a step-by-step unwinding of lockdown. She was quoted as saying that even if she assumed that one person infected 1.1 ors after lockdown eased, country would reach limits of its healthcare system. And with current rate of infection, it did t sound like Germany would reach re in June alrey. 

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