Brazil has surge of virus cases, downplayed by politicians

Cases of COVID-19 are rising again in country with world’s second-highest confirmed death toll, prompting Brazilian experts to express concern and politicians to downplay its severity in midst of an election season. Data from Johns Hopkins University show new cases reached a seven-day rolling aver of 28,600 a day on Thursday, up from about 13,700 two weeks earlier.

With infections increasing from Brazil's biggest cities to Amazon, re has been rampant speculation nation could be on track to follow path of U.S. and Europe, where new cases are spiraling.

Yet key authorities remain outwardly sanguine, claiming increase to be eir temporary or a statistical blip. Many are brushing off calls for stricter measures aimed at containing virus' spre at a moment when Brazilians are heing into a second round of municipal elections nationwide.

Manaus, capital of Amazonas state, was slammed so hard early in pandemic that hospitals turned away patients and city cemetery dug mass graves. Its hospitals recently hustled to d dozens of intensive-care beds for COVID-19 patients, and state extended by one month its decree closing bars, river beaches and clubs. Still, Marcellus Campêlo, state’s health secretary, denied a looming wave of cases.

“We have h an increase in COVID-19 infections, which we think is due to Independence Day (Sept. 7), political party conventions and start of election period, which unfortunately generated a lot of crowds,” Campêlo told Associated Press. “But data from hospitalizations isn’t close to what we saw in April or May.”

Health Ministry's executive secretary, Élcio Franco, told reporters Thursday that rise may be a statistical illusion caused by a glitch in ministry's COVID-19 information system that prevented several states from uploing figures during several day in vember's first week — making count stack up later. System instability has me it impossible to kw, said Franco.

But even accounting for statistical amaly, experts warn last week’s surge shouldn't be igred, particularly as number of cases confirmed this week has remained elevated.

“We’re undoubtedly having a very significant increase in number of cases,” said Margareth Dalcolmo, a respiratory medicine professor at state-funded Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. “People who remained protected and isolated in ir homes during this long period have w been exposed, eir because y’re leaving ir homes, or because younger people are bringing virus to ir families.”

Sao Paulo state's government on Monday said that number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in state h risen for first time since August, with an 18% uptick from prior week, to 1,009. But Sao Paulo city Mayor Bru Covas argued that despite greater intensive-care occupancy, overall cases and deaths have been relatively stable.

"We will show that re is second wave in city, and that re is stability,” he said at a campaign event Thursday. At a subsequent press conference, he said that figure indicates need for more intense restrictions, particularly a lockdown.

Meanwhile state government, which has recorded more than 40,000 deaths, is bracing for situation to possibly worsen. Gov. João Doria issued two decrees Thursday prohibiting COVID-19 beds from being used for or treatments and barring all nessential surgeries.

Ongoing mayoral elections probably contribute to municipal authorities’ reluctance to reinstitute tough measures, which y eased over recent months, according to Rafael Cortez, a partner at political consultancy Tendencias. Covas led in first round of elections on v. 15, and will compete in a ruff on v. 29.

In Brazil — much like in U.S. — virus has been politicized by president, Jair Bolsonaro, who has routinely downplayed COVID-19 and undermined local authorities’ restrictions on activity. On v. 13, Bolsonaro dismissed speculation of a second wave as “chit-chat.”

“Eventually, calling attention to this and enacting more aggressive policies, restricting mobility, can have an electoral cost,” Cortez said. “se local governments run risk of discontenting part of electorate. As re are ruffs, above all in big state capitals, we’ll likely see some incisive government action afterward.”

Sao Paulo’s Gov. Doria postponed an official review of quarantine measures from v. 16 to v. 30 — day after ruffs. Mayor Covas is his political ally.

Local authorities also are loath to clamp new restrictions on an alrey depressed ecomy, especially ahe of holiday spending season, according to Thiago de Aragão, director of strategy for Arko vice, a political consultancy.

In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second most populous city, Mayor Marcelo Crivella said this week that re has been an increase in number of medical consultations for COVID-19, but that hn’t translated into more hospitalizations.

But his own city's COVID-19 website shows hospitalizations creeping urd since end of October, hitting ir highest level since June. Like Covas, Crivella is in a reelection battle.

Paulo Lotufo, an epidemiologist and professor of internal medicine at University of Sao Paulo, said that increase in Brazilian cases is undeniable. What h been unclear until recently was wher that was caused by isolated super-spreer events, or represented widespre contagion. "Two days ago re was doubt. I don’t have that anymore,” Lotufo said. ″Sao Paulo's capital, Sao Paulo's interior, Brazil's sourn region, Rio de Janeiro; super-spreer events explain spikes in specific hospitals, but what you see w is generalized.”