China didn't warn public of likely pandemic for 6 key days

In six days after top Chinese officials secretly determined, y likely were facing a pandemic from a new coronavirus, city of Wuhan at epicentre of disease hosted a mass banquet for tens of thousands of people; millions began travelling through for Lunar New Year celebrations.

President Xi Jinping warned public on seventh day, Jan. 20. But by n, more than 3,000 people h been infected during almost a week of public silence, according to internal documents obtained by Associated Press and estimates based on

delay from Jan. 14 to Jan. 20 was neir first mistake me by Chinese officials at all levels in confronting outbreak, r longest lag, as governments around world have dragged ir feet for weeks and even months in dressing virus.

But delay by first country to face new coronavirus came at a critical time — beginning of outbreak. China’s attempt to walk a line between alerting public and avoiding panic set st for a pandemic that has infected almost 2 million people and taken more than 126,000 lives.

“This is tremendous,” said Zuo-Feng Zhang, an epidemiologist at University of California, Los Angeles. “If y took action six days earlier, re would have been much fewer patients and medical facilities would have been sufficient.”

However, ar epidemiologist, Benjamin Cowley at University of Hong Kong, ted that it may have been a tricky call. If health officials raise alarm prematurely, it can dam ir credibility — “like crying wolf” — and may cripple ir ability to mobilize public, he said.

six-day delay by China’s leers in Beijing came on top of almost two weeks during which national Center for Disease Control did t register any new cases, internal bulletins obtained by AP confirmed.

Chinese government has repeatedly denied suppressing information in early days, saying it immediately reported outbreak to World Health Organization.

“Allegations of a cover-up or lack of transparency in China are groundless,” said foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a Thursday press conference.

documents show that he of China’s National Health Commission, Ma Xiaowei, laid out a grim assessment of situation in a confidential Jan. 14 teleconferences with provincial health officials. A memo states that teleconference was held to convey instructions on coronavirus from President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, but does t specify what those instructions were.

“ epidemic situation is still severe and complex, most severe challenge since SARS in 2003, and is likely to develop into a major public health event,” memo cites Ma as saying.

In a faxed statement, National Health Commission said China h published information on outbreak in an “open, transparent, responsible and timely manner,” in accordance with “important instructions” repeatedly issued by President Xi.

documents come from an anymous source in medical field who did t want to be named for fear of retribution. AP confirmed contents with two or sources in public health familiar with teleconference.

Under a section titled “sober understanding of situation,” memo singled out case in Thailand, saying that situation h “changed significantly” because of possible spre of virus abro.

“All localities must prepare for and respond to a pandemic,” it said.

National Health Commission distributed a 63-p set of instructions to provincial health officials, obtained by AP. instructions, marked “t to be publicly disclosed,” ordered health officials nationwide to identify suspected cases, hospitals to open fever clinics, and doctors and nurses to don protective gear.

In public, however, officials continued to downplay threat.

“ risk of sustained human-to-human transmission is low,” Li Qun, he of China CDC’s emergency centre,

Under new orders, on Jan. 16 officials in Wuhan and elsewhere finally got CDC-approved testing kits and a green light to start confirming new cases. Across country, dozens of reported cases n began to surface, in some cases among patients who were infected earlier but h t yet been tested.

On Jan. 20, President Xi issued his first public comments on virus, saying outbreak “must be taken seriously”. A leing Chinese epidemiologist, Zhong Nanshan,

delay may support accusations by U.S. President Donald Trump that Chinese government’s secrecy held back world’s response to virus. However, even public anuncement on Jan. 20 left U.S.

Some health experts said Beijing took decisive action given information available to m.

“y may t have said right thing, but y were doing right thing,” said Ray Yip, retired founding he of U.S. Centers for Disease Control’s office in China. “On 20th, y sounded alarm for whole country, which is t an unreasonable delay.”

But ors say an earlier warning would have saved lives. If public h been warned a week earlier to practice social distancing, wear masks and cut back on travel, cases could have been cut by up to two-thirds,

“ earlier you act,” said Los Angeles epidemiologist Zhang, “ easier you can control disease.”