China to see 25,000 deaths a day by mid-Jan? Study predicts COVID disaster

China will see 25,000 COVID-19 deaths a day by mid-January, according to a study published by UK-based research firm Airfinity. study says number of COVID-19 cases in China will rise to 3.7 million cases a day when infection peaks on January 13. China's COVID-19 death toll will rise to 587,000 by end of January and to 1.7 million by April-end, according to company's predictive health analytics data.   

Watering down zero-COVID

current surge in coronavirus cases follows Beijing's decision to relax its strict zero-COVID policy. China h opted a stringent policy to guard against infection that grually grew unpopular with citizens. Widespre protests in Beijing and or parts of China forced Communist Party to ease curbs. 

Now, China's health infrastructure is under immense strain as hospitals and funeral homes get overcrowded. Pictures of people getting intravenous drips by roside and long lines of hearses outside crematoria have attracted global attention. 

Beijing won't give numbers 

Airfinity study comes at a time when China is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases and National Health Commission, Beijing's chief medical body, has decided to not release infection and death numbers on a daily basis. 

For December 30, China only reported one COVID-19 fatality, same as day before.  figures do not correspond to global standard ratio of infections and deaths.

According to Airfinity, China is currently seeing around 9,000 COVID-19 cases a day. 

Airfinity’s model 

Airfinity's study draws on data from China's provinces prior to Beijing modifying disease reporting norms. model also traces growth in caselo on basis of how or nations seeing a spike are reporting cases, including Japan.  

Airfinity, in its report, stated that number of cases in Beijing have most likely alrey peaked, with peak in hospitalisations and fatalities coming in next one to two weeks.

firm has also forecast that a second peak, which is expected to take place on March 3, 2023, will see daily cases likely exceed 4.2 million per day. In this second wave, it is anticipated that rural areas may be more severely affected.