Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 unlikely to lead to Beijing's victory: Report

Even though such a scenario is avoided at best, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank from Washington DC has conducted war game simulations of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026. report accessed by US news outlet CNN outlines consequences as lethal. invasion would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to CSIS. 

China-Taiwan conflict h been a hot topic in 2022 and continues to be in 2023 and has preoccupied military and political leers in Indo-Pacific and West. A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as Chinese forces it defeated, says report. At end of conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at bottom of Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is largest in world, would be in “shambles", wrote CNN citing report.

US news outlet CNN reviewed an vance copy of report – titled “ First Battle of Next War” – on two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said project was necessary because previous government and private war simulations have been too narrow or too opaque to give public and policymakers a true look at how conflict across Taiwan Strait might play out.

What is CSIS project?

What was once unthinkable—direct conflict between United States and China—has now become a commonplace discussion in national security community. Although Chinese plans are unclear, a military invasion is not out of question and would constitute China’s most dangerous solution to its “Taiwan problem", said CSIS on ir website. This CSIS project designed a wargame to model a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026 and ran it 24 times in a variety of scenarios. 

Insights across 24 game iterations included vulnerability of surface ships, massive coalition aircraft losses on ground, effectiveness of long-range anti ship missiles, critical importance of Taiwanese ground forces, and need for access to operating bases in Japan.  Based on insights, project makes a variety of recommendations to strengn deterrence. “re’s no unclassified war game out re looking at US-China conflict,” told Mark Cancian to CNN, one of three project leers and a senior viser at Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of games that are unclassified, y’re usually only done once or twice.”

A bleak future for Taiwan

simulations pointed to a devastating future for Taiwan even if a Chinese invasion is not frutiful. “While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degred and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” report said. island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, report said, according to CNN. 

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, report found. But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan “is inevitable or even probable.” “ Chinese leership might opt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” it said.