Coup a further complication for tricky Myanmar-China ties

Before Monday's coup in Myanmar, country's relations with China alrey were complicated by Chinese investments in its infrastructure and Myanmar military's campaigns along ir shared border.

coup deposed national leer Aung San Suu Kyi a little over a year after Chinese President Xi Jinping me a show of support to her with first visit by a he of state from Beijing to Myanmar since 2001 and 33 agreements on a wide range of issues.

military's commander-in-chief, Min Aung Hliang, has taken charge of new government under a one-year state of emergency.

Even if China played role at all in ousting Suu Kyi, Beijing is likely to gain still greater sway over country, analysts say. That’s especially likely if U.S. and or Western governments impose sanctions to try to punish regime.

At a briefing on situation at United Nations Security Council on Tuesday, U.N. envoy for Myanmar condemned coup and urged council to support democracy in country. But it was unclear if council would issue a statement calling for restoration of democracy and release of all those detained by military because U.N. missions of China and Russia said y h to send it to ir capitals for review.

Beijing's initial reaction to coup was measured.

On Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China was studying situation, describing Myanmar as a “friendly neighbor.” He urged Myanmar to properly handle situation according to its laws and constitution and “maintain political and social stability.”

China has invested billions of dollars in Myanmar mines, oil and gas pipelines and or infrastructure and is its biggest tring partner. But while China’s ruling Communist Party tends to favor fellow authoritarian regimes, it has h a fractious history with Myanmar’s military, sometimes related to its campaigns against ethnic Chinese mirity groups and drug tre along ir long, mountaius border.

It was partly a backlash against China's growing dominance of Myanmar's ecomy a dece ago that led previous junta to shift toward democratic reforms and civilian government that enabled Suu Kyi to join Parliament and become nation's de facto leer, even as military retained ultimate power.

Suu Kyi has shifted closer to Beijing in past few years as she defended military against condemnation of atrocities against Myanmar's Rohingya mirity. That may have deepened military leers' distrust, especially after ir party suffered a resounding loss in recent elections.

“It was always a risk that military would step in to try and shore up ir power,” Champa Patel, director of Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House in London said in an emailed statement. “ir insecurity has deepened as (Suu Kyi) consolidated her power within country and deepened ties with countries such as China.”

coup came just three weeks after a visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who met with Suu Kyi and also military officials in capital, Naypyitaw. visit was seen in part as an endorsement of victory of Suu Kyi's party in October election and partly as a signal Beijing would like to see faster progress on projects agreed to a year earlier.

Some have speculated that Beijing might have given a covert d to generals.

But while coup may le Myanmar's leers to lean more heavily on support from China, supplier of most of ir weapons and one of country's biggest sources of foreign investment, researcher Zhao Gancheng at Shanghai Institute for International Studies, says it was an unwelcome disruption.

“As a neighboring country, I can’t see anything good for China, given that all of China’s investments and infrastructure construction need a stable environment,” Zhao said. “China is concerned about this development,” he said.

Regardless of what internal politics, antagonisms and personal ambitions might have driven Min Aung Hliang and or military leers to seize power, China is bound to continue to expand its influence in Myanmar given huge projects alrey under construction and depth of Chinese involvement in businesses ranging from casis, factories and property development to pipelines and ports.

Last week, Chinese consortium leing a deep-water port project in Kyaukphyu, on rthwestern coast, began seeking bids for environmental assessments of project. An anchor of Beijing's “Belt and Ro Initiative” to build infrastructure across much of Asia linking its ecomy to rest of world, it will give China coveted overland access to Bay of Bengal.

China has massive commitments to projects in mining, hydropower and or construction, part of $21.5 billion it has pledged in investment in Myanmar. Suu Kyi's government h been slowly moving ahe on such projects, some of which face strong local opposition.

“China has strategic, vested interests in keeping Myanmar as stable as y possibly can,” said Chris Ankerson, a professor at NYU School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs. “It works to China's vant to be seen as someone who has to be consulted."

After nearly a dece of reforms and grual opening of Myanmar’s long-isolated ecomy, U.S. and or Western businesses have me only tentative investments, usually with local or or Asian partners.

Western governments that alrey have imposed sanctions against Min Aung Hliang and or top military leers and businesses over human rights abuses refore have relatively scant lever in persuing Myanmar’s leers to restore civilian rule.

military may have decided, ultimately, that cost of defying Western public opinion by staging a coup was outweighed by its own domestic considerations — namely a determination to push Suu Kyi aside, Ankerson said.

In past, military has at times sought to counter growing Chinese influence over ecomy, showing “a more independent streak that sought to balance against Chinese influence,” said Patel of Chatham House.

But generals control big chunks of Myanmar’s ecomy and will likely maneuver to maximize what y can gain through dealings with ir Chinese partners.

Min Aung Hliang is a major investor in Myanma Ecomic Holdings PLC, a conglomerate set up by military in 1990 that has major joint projects with Chinese corporations, including Letpaung copper mine.

“China will have greater lever to pull Myanmar furr into orbit of its own plans for ecomic development,” said John G. Dale, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia.

And Japan, Singapore and or countries that are more heavily invested in Myanmar are likely to balk at harsh measures against newly established military regime, say Gregory B. Poling and Simon Tran Hudes of Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“And largest foreign player in Myanmar’s ecomy, China, will be all too happy to recalibrate its engment to recognize new facts on ground. That will likely soften blow of any U.S. sanctions, which Min Aung Hlaing has doubtless alrey anticipated and dismissed," y said in a report.