Egypt’s options dwindle as Nile talks break down

latest breakdown in talks with Ethiopia over its construction of a massive upstream Nile dam has left Egypt with dwindling options as it seeks to protect main source of freshwater for its large and growing population. Talks collapsed earlier this month over construction of $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is 60% complete and promises to provide much-needed electricity to Ethiopia’s 100 million people. But Egypt, with a population of around same size, fears that process of filling reservoir behind dam could slice into its share of river, with catastrophic consequences. Pro-government media have cast it as a national security threat that could warrant military action.

Speaking at U.N. last month, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said he would “never” allow Ethiopia to impose a “de facto situation” by filling dam without an agreement.

“While we ackwledge Ethiopia’s right to development, water of Nile is a question of life, a matter of existence to Egypt,” he said.

Egypt has been holding talks for years with Ethiopia and Sudan, upstream countries that have long complained about Cairo’s overwhelming share of river, which is enshrined in treaties dating back to British colonial era. Those talks came to an acrimonious halt earlier this month, third time y have broken down since 2014.

“We are fed up with Ethiopian procrastination. We will t spend our lifetime in useless talks,” an Egyptian official told Associated Press. “All options are on table, but we prefer dialogue and political means.”

Egypt has reached out to United States, Russia, China and Europe, apparently hoping to reach a better deal through international mediation. White House said earlier this month it supports talks to reach a sustainable agreement while “respecting each or’s Nile water equities.”

Mohamed el-Molla, an Egyptian Foreign Ministry official, said Cairo would take dispute to U.N. Security Council if Ethiopians refuse international mediation.

That has angered Ethiopia, which wants to resolve dispute through tripartite talks.

An Ethiopian official said packs offered by Cairo so far “were deliberately prepared to be unacceptable for Ethiopia.”

“w y are saying Ethiopia has rejected offer, and calling for a third-party intervention,” official ded. Both Ethiopian and Egyptian official spoke on condition of anymity because y were t authorized to discuss talks with media.

main dispute is centered on filling of dam’s 74-billion-cubic-meter reservoir. Ethiopia wants to fill it as soon as possible so it can generate over 6,400 Megawatts, a massive boost to current production of 4,000 Megawatts. Ethiopia said earlier this year that dam would start generating power by end of 2020 and would operate at full capacity by 2022.

That has potential to sharply reduce flow of Blue Nile, main tributary to river, which is fed by annual monsoon rains in Ethiopian highlands. If filling takes place during one of region’s periodic droughts, its downstream impact could be even more severe.

Egypt has proposed less than seven years for filling reservoir, and for Ethiopia to just pace according to rainfall, said an Egyptian Irrigation Ministry official who is a member of its negotiation team. official also was t authorized to discuss talks publicly and so spoke on condition of anymity.

Nile supplies more than 90% of Egypt’s freshwater. Egyptians alrey have one of lowest per capita shares of water in world, at around 570 cubic meters per year, compared to a global aver of 1,000. Ethiopians however have an aver of 125 cubic meters per year.

Egypt wants to guarantee a minimum annual release of 40 billion cubic meters of water from Blue Nile. irrigation official said anything less could affect Egypt’s own massive Aswan High Dam, with dire ecomic consequences.

“It could put millions of farmers out of work. We might lose more than one million jobs and $1.8 billion annually, as well as $300 million worth of electricity,” he said.

official said Ethiopia has agreed to guarantee just 31 billion cubic meters.

El-Sissi is set to meet with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of this year’s bel Peace Prize, on Wednesday in Russian city of Sochi, on sidelines of a Russia-Africa summit. y may be able to revive talks, but stakes get higher as dam nears completion.

International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, warned earlier this year that “risk of future clashes could be severe if parties do t also reach agreement on a longer-term basin-wide river manment framework.”

In recent weeks re have been calls by some commentators in Egypt’s pro-government media to resort to force.

Abdallah el-Senawy, a prominent columnist for daily newspaper el-Shorouk, said only alternatives were internationalizing dispute or taking military action.

“Egypt is t a small county,” he wrote in a Sunday column. “If all diplomatic and legal options fail, a military intervention might be obligatory.”

Anwar el-Hawary, former editor of Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper, compared dispute to 1973 war with Israel, in which Egypt launched a surprise attack into Sinai Peninsula.

“If we fought to liberate Sinai, it is logical to fight to liberate water,” he wrote on Facebook. “ danger is same in two cases. War is last response.”

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Associated Press writer Elias Meseret in dis Ababa, Ethiopia, contributed to this report.