El Nino Might Make 2024 Hotter Than 2023, Warn Experts

This year could be hotter under El Nino's influence than the record-shattering 2023, the United Nations warned Friday, as it urged substantial emissions reductions to battle climate change. 

While, a report by Copernicus Climate Change Service said that 2024 would likely smash records for global temperature, surpassing even 2023, which is itself almost certain to be the warmest year on record.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 99 per cent likelihood that 2024 will be among the five warmest years ever recorded, and a one in three possibility that it will be warmer than 2023.

The Copernicus report stated that several datasets indicate that there's a good chance the year will end with an average temperature of more than 1.5°C over the pre-industrial level, suggesting that it might be warmer than 2023.

"Every month between June and December set new records. July and August were the two hottest months ever recorded," a report by World Meteorological Organization stated. 

"The 1.5°C figure is the temperature limit set out clearly in the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change but that refers to the long-term temperature increase averaged over decades, rather than an individual year like 2023," WMO further stated.

🌍🌡️2023 is confirmed as the warmest calendar year on record, with a global average temperature of 14.98°C, 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 level, overtaking 2016, the previous warmest year.

Learn more in the #C3S Global Climate Highlights report 👉 https://t.co/i7ZDNIrPvj pic.twitter.com/rwSzdfpclP

— Copernicus ECMWF (@CopernicusECMWF)

“Climate change is the biggest challenge that humanity faces. It is affecting all of us, especially the most vulnerable,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Celeste Saulo, presenting the report’s findings. He added that we cannot afford to wait any longer. He further added that We are already taking action, but we have to do more and quickly. 

For that, Prof. Saulo explained, drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and accelerated transition to renewable energy sources are needed, the report elaborated.

Looking ahead, the head of WMO warned that as the cooling La Niña phenomenon was replaced with a warming El Niño midway through last year - which usually has the biggest impact on global temperatures after it peaks - 2024 could be even hotter, the report continued.

According to the report, Celeste Saulo who became WMO Secretary-General on 1 January, explained that “while El Niño events are naturally occurring and come and go from one year to the next, longer-term climate change is escalating and this is unequivocal because of human activities”.

“Humanity’s actions are scorching the Earth. 2023 was a mere preview of the catastrophic future that awaits if we don’t act now. We must respond to record-breaking temperature rises with path-breaking action,” UN chief António Guterres said in response to the latest data, the report cited. 

“We can still avoid the worst of climate catastrophe. But only if we act now with the ambition required to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius and deliver climate justice,” he said in a statement, the report further cited.