Exit Polls Suggest Hard-Right AfD Set For Historic Victory in Eastern German State Elections

In a dramatic shift in Germany's political landscape, the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has emerged as the dominant force in two key state elections held on Sunday, marking a historic first since the end of World War II. 

This significant development highlights growing voter dissatisfaction with Germany’s mainstream political parties.

A look at the numbers

Exit polls reveal that the AfD has achieved its strongest performance yet, capturing between 30.5% and 33.5% of the vote in Thuringia, and securing second place in Saxony with 30% to 31.5%. These results represent a notable breakthrough for the AfD, which has now become the largest political force in a German state parliament for the first time.

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, hailed the outcome as "a historic success." She remarked, “It is the first time we have become the strongest force in a state election. It is a requiem for this coalition [in Berlin].” Weidel’s statement underscores the AfD’s triumph and the potential implications for Germany’s national politics.

Mainstream parties face setback

The results have dealt a severe blow to the three ruling parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left federal coalition. Each of these parties—comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens—secured only single-digit percentages in both states. The poor performance of these centrist parties reflects their inability to address the growing discontent among voters in the former communist east.

Despite expectations of a shift towards the hard-right, the extent of the AfD’s success and the implications for the federal coalition have sent shockwaves through Germany’s political landscape. The centrist parties have struggled throughout the year to reverse declining approval ratings, exacerbating the challenges they face as the country approaches its next general election.

Emergence of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance

Adding to the political upheaval, the new populist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has made a notable entrance onto the national stage. Founded by leftist icon Sahra Wagenknecht, the BSW has managed to secure between 11.5% and 12% of the vote in Saxony and 14.5% to 16% in Thuringia. The alliance’s platform, which includes higher taxes on the wealthy, stricter immigration policies, and a cessation of military support for Ukraine, has resonated deeply with voters in the east. The party mixed social conservatism with left-wing economic policies. 

The BSW’s success means that, as no party has won an outright majority in either state, the alliance could play a crucial role in negotiations for forming new state governments. Their significant share of the vote positions them as a key player in shaping the political future of both Saxony and Thuringia.

Implications for German Politics

The results from these state elections signal a pivotal moment for Germany. The AfD’s unprecedented success and the rise of the BSW reflect a broader trend of political realignment in the country, highlighting the challenges facing traditional parties and the growing appeal of alternative political voices. As Germany prepares for its next general election, these developments will undoubtedly influence the national debate and the future direction of German politics.