Explainer: Why This Weekend's Elections in Eastern Germany Matter

This Sunday, voters in eastern Germany will head to the polls for state elections that could significantly alter the political landscape of the country. The elections, taking place in the states of Saxony and Thuringia, with Brandenburg voting on September 22, are expected to see a notable rise in support for populist parties on both the hard right and hard left ends of the spectrum. Here's a comprehensive guide to what’s at stake and what the results might mean for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's fragile coalition government.

When and Where Are the Votes Taking Place?

On Sunday, elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia to elect their state parliamentarians. Brandenburg will follow with its own elections on September 22. These votes are pivotal as they will reflect the mood of voters in eastern Germany, a region often seen as a bellwether for political discontent.

When Will the Results Be Announced?

Initial projections for the elections in Thuringia and Saxony are expected at 6 p.m. on Sunday (local time), based on exit polls. Following these, early vote counts will provide more detailed results. The final tally and a clearer picture of the election outcomes will likely emerge throughout the night.

Who Is Expected to Win?

In Thuringia, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is predicted to secure a strong lead, polling just under 30 percent. The party, led by Björn Höcke, known for his extreme views and previous legal issues related to Nazi rhetoric, is anticipated to make a significant impact.

In Saxony, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and AfD are neck to neck in some polls, and, in some other polls, the AfD is leading, making it a closely watched race. In Brandenburg as well, the AfD is leading. 

Additionally, a new populist-left party, founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, a prominent leftist figure, is expected to perform remarkably well. Despite being a recent addition to the political scene, this party is projected to finish third in both Thuringia and Saxony. This strong showing could position it as a key player in future coalition negotiations. Her party is not a conventional left-wing party. It has right-wing policies on immigration but left-wing policies on economy. 

Why Are the Stakes So High?

The surge in support for radical parties in eastern Germany represents a significant challenge to Germany’s mainstream political establishment. The rise of these parties, particularly the AfD, is seen as a direct criticism of the current government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Scholz’s three-party coalition, comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens, is facing difficulties. All three coalition parties are struggling to meet the 5-percent threshold required to secure seats in the state parliaments. A poor showing could further weaken an already tenuous coalition.

In response to the growing influence of the AfD, which has campaigned heavily on an anti-immigration platform, Scholz’s government has introduced tougher migration measures. This move highlights the impact the AfD’s rhetoric is having on mainstream politics.

Despite the AfD's rise, it is unlikely to gain governing power as all other parties have vowed not to form coalitions with them. Nevertheless, the increased support for a party with extreme views, including accusations of Nazi affiliations, is likely to alarm many and highlight ongoing issues with integrating former East Germany into a unified political framework.

As the elections unfold, the results will not only shape the future of regional politics but also provide insight into the broader national sentiment towards Germany’s political direction.