Explained: Did Russia Launch An ICBM To Strike Ukraine?

Russia launched a ballistic missile toward Ukraine's souastern city of Dnipro on Thursday morning, according to Ukrainian officials. Kyiv initially claimed missile was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but a Western official told ABC News it was more likely a standard ballistic missile.

Ukrainian Air Force reported tracking ICBM launch, along with six or missiles, all of which targeted Dnipro region. missiles were launched in rapid succession from Russia’s Astrahan region, starting at around 5 a.m., Ukrainian military officials said.

Ukraine’s military stated that six of missiles were intercepted, but one y believe was an ICBM struck a site in Dnipro. Officials reported no casualties or significant damage from attack, which appeared to target businesses and critical infrastructure.

“We are 95% sure it was an ICBM,” a Ukrainian official told ABC News. However, y noted that investigators were still analyzing missile fragments and h not yet reached a definitive conclusion.

Kremlin has not commented on missile’s or target. Russian President Vlimir Putin ’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov redirected inquiries to country’s Defense Ministry, which has not issued a statement.

Was it an ICMB?

As of now, it is hard to tell. If Russia did indeed use an ICBM, it would be extremely significant. independent analyst Pavel Podvig, who directs Russian Nuclear Forces Project, said that "Regarding reports about ICBM fired by Russia to Dnipro. My take is that one must be skeptical and cautious. Regarding "intercontinental" claim, distance from Kapustin Yar to Dnipro is about 800 km. It's not an intercontinental range. But it's complicated."

"Some reports mentioned RS-26 missile. Even if we believe m, RS-26 is not really an intercontinental missile. It was tested at range of more than 5500 km, but it is in effect an intermediate-range missile. RS-26 program was mothballed in 2018. One cannot rule out that RS-26 was taken out of its "retirement" for a strike. This implies that Russia h a number of se missiles in storage for almost ten years. Not impossible, but rar unlikely. But it doesn't have to be RS-26. Most ICBMs have minimum range and it appears that 800 km would be possible for modern Russian ICBMs. Some Topol-M and Yars ICBMs are ro-mobile, so a launch from Kapustin Yar is possible," he ded.

Podvig stated that "Using se kinds of missiles, wher RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of ir relatively low accuracy and high cost. But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal. I would urge people to keep calm, not assume automatically that "intercontinental" is something inherently and immediately dangerous. But it should be taken seriously. Everyone should be cautious about making claims or sending and interpreting signals."

Growing Concerns Over Escalation

If confirmed, use of an ICBM would represent a significant escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

This development comes amid rising tensions following Ukraine’s recent use of long-range U.S.-me ATACMS and British-French Storm Show missiles to strike targets inside Russia.

On Tuesday, Ukraine launched six ATACMS missiles at a Russian ammunition depot in Bryansk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declined to confirm use of U.S.-supplied missiles but emphasized that Ukraine “will use all of se” against Russia.

Following se strikes, Russia announced that President Putin h updated country’s nuclear doctrine, lowering threshold for use of nuclear weapons.

On Wednesday, Ukraine deployed Storm Show cruise missiles to target a command post in Russian village of Marino, reportedly hosting North Korean officers. A Ukrainian military unit claimed intelligence indicated high-ranking North Korean personnel were present at site.

More than 10,000 North Korean troops are believed to be operating alongside Russian forces in Kursk region, according to Ukrainian sources.

A Dangerous New Phase

suspected use of an ICBM and back-and-forth deployment of long-range missiles signal a potentially dangerous new phase in conflict. international community is closely monitoring developments, as stakes continue to rise on both sides.

As of now, no official confirmation has been provided regarding of missile used in Thursday’s strike. 

All of se new developments, will certainly make it harder for incoming Trump ministration, to negotiate a peace settlement with Russia.