Explained: Did Russia Launch An ICBM To Strike Ukraine?

Russia launched a ballistic missile toward Ukraine's southeastern city of Dnipro on Thursday morning, according to Ukrainian officials. Kyiv initially claimed the missile was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but a Western official told ABC News it was more likely a standard ballistic missile.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported tracking the ICBM launch, along with six other missiles, all of which targeted the Dnipro region. The missiles were launched in rapid succession from Russia’s Astrahan region, starting at around 5 a.m., Ukrainian military officials said.

Ukraine’s military stated that six of the missiles were intercepted, but the one they believe was an ICBM struck a site in Dnipro. Officials reported no casualties or significant damage from the attack, which appeared to target businesses and critical infrastructure.

“We are 95% sure it was an ICBM,” a Ukrainian official told ABC News. However, they noted that investigators were still analyzing missile fragments and had not yet reached a definitive conclusion.

The Kremlin has not commented on the missile’s type or target. Russian President Vladimir Putin ’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov redirected inquiries to the country’s Defense Ministry, which has not issued a statement.

Was it an ICMB?

As of now, it is hard to tell. If Russia did indeed use an ICBM, it would be extremely significant. The independent analyst Pavel Podvig, who directs Russian Nuclear Forces Project, said that "Regarding reports about ICBM fired by Russia to Dnipro. My take is that one must be skeptical and cautious. Regarding the "intercontinental" claim, the distance from Kapustin Yar to Dnipro is about 800 km. It's not an intercontinental range. But it's complicated."

"Some reports mentioned the RS-26 missile. Even if we believe them, RS-26 is not really an intercontinental missile. It was tested at the range of more than 5500 km, but it is in effect an intermediate-range missile. The RS-26 program was mothballed in 2018. One cannot rule out that RS-26 was taken out of its "retirement" for a strike. This implies that Russia had a number of these missiles in storage for almost ten years. Not impossible, but rather unlikely. But it doesn't have to be RS-26. Most ICBMs have the minimum range and it appears that 800 km would be possible for modern Russian ICBMs. Some Topol-M and Yars ICBMs are road-mobile, so a launch from Kapustin Yar is possible," he added.

Podvig stated that "Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost. But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal. I would urge people to keep calm, not assume automatically that "intercontinental" is something inherently and immediately dangerous. But it should be taken seriously. Everyone should be cautious about making claims or sending and interpreting signals."

Growing Concerns Over Escalation

If confirmed, the use of an ICBM would represent a significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

This development comes amid rising tensions following Ukraine’s recent use of long-range U.S.-made ATACMS and British-French Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets inside Russia.

On Tuesday, Ukraine launched six ATACMS missiles at a Russian ammunition depot in the Bryansk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declined to confirm the use of the U.S.-supplied missiles but emphasized that Ukraine “will use all of these” against Russia.

Following these strikes, Russia announced that President Putin had updated the country’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

On Wednesday, Ukraine deployed Storm Shadow cruise missiles to target a command post in the Russian village of Marino, reportedly hosting North Korean officers. A Ukrainian military unit claimed intelligence indicated high-ranking North Korean personnel were present at the site.

More than 10,000 North Korean troops are believed to be operating alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region, according to Ukrainian sources.

A Dangerous New Phase

The suspected use of an ICBM and the back-and-forth deployment of long-range missiles signal a potentially dangerous new phase in the conflict. The international community is closely monitoring developments, as the stakes continue to rise on both sides.

As of now, no official confirmation has been provided regarding the type of missile used in Thursday’s strike. 

All of these new developments, will certainly make it harder for the incoming Trump administration, to negotiate a peace settlement with Russia.