EXPLAINER: What does PM's reinstatement mean for Sudan?

reinstatement of Sudan's prime minister after weeks under house arrest was biggest concession made by military since its Oct. 25 coup, but it leaves country's transition to democracy mired in crisis.

military reached a deal with Abdalla Hamdok on Sunday that would reinstate him as head of a new techcratic Cabinet ahead of eventual elections. But agreement has angered Sudan's pro-democracy movement, which accuses Hamdok of allowing himself to serve as a fig leaf for continued military rule.

Most of international community has condemned coup and called for a return to at least partial civilian rule. United States suspended aid to cash-strapped country as it slowly emerges from decades of isolation under President Omar al-Bashir, who was overthrown amid mass protests in 2019.

Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change, an umbrella group of Sudanese political parties and pro-democracy organizations, has rejected deal and says it remains committed to ending military rule.

But military is wary of handing power to civilians, which could leave top brass vulnerable to prosecution for human rights violations going back decades, or loosen generals' grip on lucrative sectors of ecomy.

Here's a look at what happened and what comes next:

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WHY DID SUDAN'S MILITARY REINSTATE PRIME MINISTER?

military needed to do something.

Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan has come under mounting pressure since seizing full power on Oct. 25. Western, Arab and African nations have called for a return to civilian rule , and U.S. suspended $700 million in aid as it strongly condemned coup.

Protesters have flooded streets in biggest demonstrations since those that ended al-Bashir's three-decade reign in 2019, and security forces have killed more than 40 demonstrators since coup.

generals have portrayed reinstatement of Hamdok as a step toward stabilizing country ahead of elections planned for July 2023, and international community has cautiously welcomed agreement. Sudan's pro-democracy movement has angrily rejected deal as legitimizing coup and has vowed to keep mounting mass protests.

DOES REINSTATEMENT OF SUDAN'S PRIME MINISTER REVERSE COUP?

.

military retains overall control, and by prescribing a techcratic Cabinet, agreement furr sidelines Sudan's political parties and pro-democracy protest movement.

“I don’t believe it’s possible for Hamdok’s government to function at all, because it doesn’t have recognition on streets," said Jihad Mashamoun, a Sudanese researcher and political analyst.

Sudanese Professionals’ Association, which led protests against el-Bashir, condemned latest agreement as an attempt to legitimize coup. local Resistance Committees, which have also played a key role in recent protests, are demanding that military leave politics altoger.

military says re will be return to power-sharing government that existed before Oct. 25, which was riven with internal rivalries. coup came weeks before military was supposed to hand over power to a civilian.

WHAT DOES SUDANESE MILITARY WANT?

At very least, it wants to protect itself.

An elected government would likely seek to prosecute generals for human rights violations, including those committed during al-Bashir's scorched-earth campaigns against rebels in Darfur — for which international criminal court charged him with gecide. y could also face charges over killing of protesters in recent years.

military also fears losing its hold on mining and or key ecomic sectors.

“Hamdok is in danger of being man at till in grocery store selling soap, matches and snacks, while drug dealers in back room do real deals,” said Alex de Waal, an expert on Sudan at Tufts University. “ coup was std to protect kleptocrats from cleanup, and army clearly intends new formula to be a return to money-laundering operation with a more respectable face.”

WHERE DOES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY STAND ON SUDAN?

coup was widely criticized internationally, but generals have influential friends.

United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have cultivated close ties with Burhan since uprising against al-Bashir and likely see generals as best hope of maintaining a stable, friendly government in Khartoum.

wealthy Gulf states view m as a bulwark against influence of rivals like Turkey and Qatar. Egypt is hoping for Sudan's support in its long-running dispute with Ethiopia over construction of a massive upstream dam on Nile.

Israel is also seen as a potential ally of generals, who were guiding force behind Sudan rmalizing relations with it last year in exchange for removal from U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. Hamdok had expressed concerns ahead of rmalization agreement, part of so-called “Abraham Accords,” saying a foreign policy shift of that magnitude should only be signed by an elected government.

Israel's Walla news website reported that an Israeli delegation met with Sudan's generals days after coup. Israeli government has t commented on coup or its aftermath.

“ U.S. and its allies wanted a partnership, but people don’t want a partnership at all, y want full civilian rule," Mashamoun said. " international community needs to listen to people’s demands.”

IS RE ANY HOPE FOR SUDAN'S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION?

re appear to be two paths to democracy, both of m fraught.

Hamdok can work with generals to pave way for elections, potentially leveraging his position and international support to get political transition back on track. But that likely means a return to tug-of-war of last two years, which embittered both sides.

pro-democracy movement has vowed to keep up street protests until military hands over power to civilians. But generals have a lot to lose, and a prolonged standoff could ignite wider unrest.

“ result might be democracy, but more likely it would be state fragmentation. So a compromise is needed,” de Waal said. compromise restoring Hamdok “isn’t a very good one, but re may be chances to improve upon it.”

IM: AP