Explainer: As countries ease lockdown, here’s why 2nd wave of COVID is a serious concern

epicentre of coronavirus in China, Wuhan reported a cluster of new infections on May 10 weeks after lifting restrictions and restoring rmalcy. At least five new cases were reported from same compound triggering fear of a second wave of  dely pandemic. A day after, on May 11, China reported one new coronavirus case and 15 asymptomatic infections. Wuhan was first city in world to report a case of coronavirus and soon after pandemic spre to entire country infecting 82,919 people and killing 4,633.

However, Wuhan is t only place where coronavirus returned after curve flattened and cases dropped to zero or single digit. Many reports claim that disease could come back once lockdown is lifted and many of infected could be asymptomatic. Currently, Italy, South Korea, Germany among ors are fearing a second wave of infections. 

What is second wave of infection?

Considering that re is vaccine or specific treatment for coronavirus, social distancing is only way people can avoid contracting disease. refore, countries have anunced lockdowns to contain furr spre of virus. However, once lockdown is lifted, people become vulnerable to infection again. This is because virus was only contained, and t treated.

"Once we return to rmal activity levels, re is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, confirmed this in an interview with PTI.

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Why second wave is a serious concern?

During a briefing on April 20, World Health Organization’s Director-General, Tedros ham Ghebreyesus h warned “ worst is yet ahe of us.” Later in month, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield stated that a second wave of coronavirus would be even “more difficult” than original. 

Experts have time and again warned that second wave can be more dely than initial outbreak. It cant be igred that back in 1918, second wave of historic influenza outbreak caused most of deaths in pandemic. 

Even in case of coronavirus many people who were successfully treated contracted disease again after testing negative. What is more frightening is fact that many of m were asymptomatic, meaning that y aren't showing signs of extreme weakness, fever or difficulty in breathing. 

What causes second wave?

Any infectious disease spres via contact between infectious and susceptible people. If control measures are t in place, infection can spre as long as aver number of people infected by each infectious person is greater than one.

In case of some diseases, if recovered patients become immune, re will be a trail of immunity and once re are fewer susceptible people, virus dies out. However, in case of coronavirus where infection is brought under control through social distancing, only a small portion of population can develop immunity and as soon as social distancing rules ease  fear of second wave looms large due to presence of many susceptible people.

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How can second wave be avoided?

Experts and researchers have been conducting studies to figure out how a second wave of infection can be avoided. Meanwhile, some possible ways to avoid resurgence have been suggested by global experts so far. 

Learn from first wave

first thing that a country can do is to learn from first wave, said World Health Organization representative to Russia, Melita Vujvic, while speaking to an international news ncy. She ded that healthcare system will have to work toger with sanitary supervision to track down infected patients until it is clear how immunity is formed. She also emphasized on need to restrict contacts. 

Herd immunity

It is believed that one possible way of avoiding a second wave is by achieving 'herd immunity'. Herd immunity is achieved when a large number of people who recover from disease develop immunity. In this case, number of susceptible cases is low and eventually, disease dies out. However, human cost of such a method is considerably high and 'unacceptable'. 

As per reports, Sweden is somewhat trying to achieve herd immunity as it did t impose strict restrictions. country’s chief epidemiologist reportedly said that racing toward “herd immunity” isn’t an explicit aim of policy but it’s a helpful threshold he thinks could be achieved within weeks.

However, in case of coronavirus, re is little information available about possibility of immunity as WHO itself said that re is such evidence yet.

"re is currently evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection," WHO said.

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Vaccine

Ar way to end pandemic is rapid development of a vaccine. Several countries have been racing to come up with a vaccine with Israel recently claiming that it has achieved a threshold. A vaccine can also help achieve herd immunity. 

Global coordinated response

Ar action that can possibly help avoid a second wave of infection is a globally coordinated response to ericate virus. This method proved successful in case of SARS in 2003. However, in case of coronavirus what poses a big challenge is its wider spre as virus has affected more than 200 countries and infected over 5 million people worldwide. 

Earlier this month, Dalai Lama said people should come toger to give a “coordinated, global response” to challenges posed by crisis.

“This crisis and its consequences serve as a warning that only by coming toger in a coordinated, global response, will we meet unprecedented magnitude of challenges we face. I pray we all heed ‘ Call to Unite’, he said in a statement released by his office.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel h also emphasized on call that pandemic requires a "strong and coordinated international response".

Testing and isolation

Among all se a viable solution to keep a second wave at bay is to keep testing any person who shows symptoms even after curve flattens. New cases should be effectively isolated immediately to avoid furr spre of virus. 

Quick action

As soon as a second wave is suspected with new cases, quick action can help a country contain infection. South Korea took a similar measure when it closed all bars in Seoul after recording new cases. Through testing, a country can keep tracking and tracing it's new cases to restrict furr spre.

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