Holding all the cards: Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League

Sheikh Hasina has been sworn in as Prime Minister of Banglesh for a third consecutive term and her fourth overall. This follows unsurprising victory in elections to 11th parliament. What was unexpected, however, was scale of  Awami League (AL)-led alliance's win, which would have delighted election manrs of likes of Kim il Sung, Nicolae Ceausescu and Enver Hoxha.

polls were first participated elections in a dece as main opposition,  Banglesh Nationalist Party (BNP), h boycotted last parliamentary polls in 2013. se were also first to be held under ruling dispensation and t under a neutral caretaker government. As such, it was a test for health of democracy in country.

In what seems to be a deeply flawed election, ruling coalition won 288 of 298 seats which went to polls on December 30. AL itself emerged victorious in 257 of 259 it contested in, with almost 75 per cent of popular vote. 110 of ruling alliance candidates won with more than 90 per cent votes, with 10 winning by margins of over 30, 00, 000 votes. Six candidates, including Sheikh Hasina, secured 99 per cent of votes cast.

In contrast, BNP-led opposition alliance polled a mere seven seats, of which BNP could win only five. Rejecting results, y have refused to be sworn in as MPs. All this in sharp contrast against results of last contested parliamentary elections of 2008, in which AL won 230 seats with 49 per cent vote and BNP won 30 seats with 33 per cent votes. In past, regardless of poll outcome, both AL and BNP have never seen ir vote share fall below 30 per cent or climb over 50 per cent.

What led to such an unprecedented victory for Sheikh Hasina? It is t as if re was anti-incumbency. Analysts have rightly pointed to her firm leership and personal popularity, impressive ecomic development in last dece, sharp improvement in social indicators, relative comfort of mirity Hindu community, which rallied solidly behind her and resources and muscle of her party workers.

Over and above, one has to d open support and misuse of official machinery. Even Awami Leaguers were embarrassed at way ballot boxes were stuffed and opposition voters were prevented from exercising ir electoral right. One Election Commissioner h to publicly concede it was t a level playing field.

What is impact of this electoral tsunami on political landscape? First,  Awami League.  party entered electoral arena in alliance with obscurantist Hefazat-e-Islami, indicating a grual dilution of its secular ethos. With 174 businessmen winning on party ticket, one can imagine distance AL has travelled from its left of centre mass base.

Remnants of old guard Tofael Ahmed, Amir Hossain Amu, Mohd Nasim have been put to grass and remaining connection with liberation war spirit is gone. re is hardly anyone w in party who can speak on basis of old ideological ties with India.Sheikh Hasina's position is unassailable and supreme. At same time, re is w kwn second rung of leership, except perhaps her son.

opposition is completely dispirited and in disarray. Having hanged Jamaat-e-Islami collaborators of 1971 and broken back of that party's organisation, Sheikh Hasina's strategy of crushing BNP into fragments is w bearing fruit. BNP is in dire straits and out of power w for a dece may t survive fresh political wilderness as a viable political force. re is a serious leership crisis.

Begum Zia has been in jail w for almost a year. Her son and heir apparent, convicted in many cases, is absconding and chances of his return in next five years are negligible. Although, t many leers in party are unhappy about same. Even before elections, some were pleing with AL for accommodating a small number in parliament in return for ir participation. party is confused and is paying price for boycotting elections in 2014, thus leaving its cre leerless and leers defenceless when persecuted by  government.

Essentially an anti-India an anti-AL platform, it diluted rhetoric on both India and Islam in hope of currying favour with New Delhi and Washington. It has paid price for igring its core appeal of nationalism, meaning anti-Indianism, and religion. Essentially, a party of Dhaka based businessmen; it lacks street power for which it used to depend on Jamaat. With that t forthcoming, its ability to pressure  government is n-existent.

Much w depends on how Sheikh Hasina governs. And it is t simply an issue of authoritarianism and development versus democracy. Again re is opposition to oversee governance and AL's electoral ally, Jatiya Party, which won 22 seats as part of ruling alliance, has been prevailed upon to perform this friendly role.

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In last five years, Sheikh Hasina showed signs of extreme authoritarianism, complete intolerance of any dissent or criticism, muzzling press on one hand and denying legitimate political to her democratic political opponents on or.

She drove an upright serving Chief Justice into exile. n-political street protests by students were violently put down t only by police but by ruling party cres. BNP bore brunt of her intimidation with criminal cases filed against almost its entire leership.

Denial of democratic causes protests to turn violent and go underground. In Banglesh, groups like Harkat-ul-Jeh-e-Islami and ors could be avenues disaffected elements could turn to giving rise to religious ricalism. Just as JSD cres did in Baksal days in early 70s with disastrous consequences. Sheikh Hasina will have to guard against this.

Indian Prime Minister and Chinese President were first to call and congratulate Sheikh Hasina over her victory. Both India and China have ecomic and political stakes in Banglesh which are t always competing interests. Both welcome stability and continuity. It is t necessary to recount all that has happened and is happening in ecomic and security engments between Delhi and Dhaka. Irritants that will arise in its relationship but for India, Banglesh, key to its Act East Policy is extremely important.

So regardless of Western criticism of flawed elections, neir India r China is going to countenance any revision of electoral verdict. India is particularly happy that Pakistan has been denied any opportunity to exploit Banglesh for its designs in east and rast India. At same time, policymakers and security strategists must t delude mselves that just because India was t an issue in political campaign re is anti-India sentiment.

India would have to guard against revival of this sentiment by BNP, as also possible gravitation of BNP leers and cres from ir centrist positions to a more rightist anti-India position.

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