Published 14:58 IST, July 27th 2020
Explainer: How New Zealand's 'elimination policy' got COVID cases down to zero in 6 weeks
As New Zealand begins to ease restrictions and gears up to open economy again, here's a look at the 'elimination strategy' that worked for the country.
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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern-led island nation New Zealand has emerged as a model for countries grappling with coronavirus pandemic. With its 'erication strategy', country took early action and kept restrictions in place till it was assured of end of community transmission. In less than two months, New Zealand is back on its feet, rey to reopen, start travel again and soon people will be able to give each or 'a quick hug'.
On May 4, country recorded zero new cases of coronavirus marking its first day without any infection since it went into lockdown in March. While anuncing same at a press briefing, PM Ardern also cautioned citizens to continue to follow social distancing rms in order to avoid risk. She ded that country's goal to eliminate virus completely is w 'within reach' and one wrong step could 'squander good work'.
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"We can take heart in recording new cases today," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. "Stay course," Ardern urged public. "We cant afford to squander good work to date when our end goal is so close and within reach."
As New Zealand begins to ease restrictions and gears up to open ecomy and travel again, here's a look at 'elimination strategy' that worked wonders for country in battle against COVID-19.
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New Zealand's 'elimination strategy'
country recorded first-ever cases reportedly on February 28. New Zealand's fight against coronavirus started with a major decision to close borders on March 19, banning all inbound travel to country. Only returning citizens and some essential workers were allowed in.
“We must go hard and we must go early,” Ardern said when anuncing what she described as 'world’s toughest border restrictions'.
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On March 23, country entered alert level 3 closing n-essential businesses, cancelling all garings and banning domestic travel. At this time it h about 100 positive cases and one h died. 48 hours later, country progressed in level 4 lockdown which is also dubbed as 'eliminate policy'. At this point, citizens were allowed to contact only with people y lived with.
On April 16, PM Jacinda Ardern said in a press conference, "We have opportunity to do something or country has achieved—elimination of virus."
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Easing restrictions
On April 27, country declared that it h 'eliminated' coronavirus as reportedly it only recorded one new case, four "probable cases" and one new death. country returned to level 3 of lockdown and eased some of its restrictions. People were w allowed to expand ir social 'bubble' and interact with more people while still hering to social distancing measures. If necessary, residents can even travel around country but can "only move once, and in one direction."
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dressing a press conference on April 27, PM Ardern mitted that without level 4 restrictions, picture could have been different. She said models projected New Zealand could have h more than 1,000 cases a day h measures been delayed.
"We will never kw what would have actually happened without our level 4 restrictions, but we can look overseas and see that this devastating scenario has played out in many or countries," she said. "Through our cumulative actions we have avoided worst."
Testing capacity
country with a population of approximately 5 million people mand to keep number of infections to as low as 1489 with 21 deaths. Many argue that country's small population was also a contributing factor in successfully implementing lockdown, while countries like UK, US, Italy are still bearing brunt of pandemic.
However, what also needs a mention is terrific testing capacity of country. WHO has time and again highlighted importance of tests and New Zealand ramped up its capacity to as many as 8000 tests per day. As per reports, New Zealand has one of highest testing rates per capita in world.
Ardern reportedly revealed that country's R0 would have been around 2.5, if mitigations were in place. But with quick action and decisive measures, country mand to keep it as low as 0.4 . This means that each infected person can only transmit disease to only half of a person. (R0 1 means each infected person would at least infect one or person.)
New Zealand has reportedly ministered more than 100,000 coronavirus tests—a rate of 2,190 per 100,000 people.
What after level 3?
country will conduct a review of situation on May 11 and will remain in level 3 till n. government on May 7 revealed what level 2 of lockdown would look like as people will be allowed to leave ir bubbles to see families and friends. Bars, malls, hairdressers and schools will also reopen, with precautions.
PM Jacinda Ardern said at level 2 people will still be required to reduce contact with strangers. "It is very unlikely we have hunted down every case of Covid-19. So we all have to stay on guard."
Wher country is rey to move out of level 3 will be decided in cabinet meeting taking into consideration if risk of community spre has been completely eliminated. Once country decides to move to level 2, re will still be measures in place to track and stop any new transmission and stamp out any outbreaks.
"It is a large step from where we are w, so when it comes time to move we want to move with confidence. If vice is to move in a phased way because level 2 taken all at once has too many risks, I would rar take that vice and move out slowly," Ardern said in her dress.
How well can 'elimination strategy' work for or countries?
country has certainly emerged as a model for or countries to contain dely pandemic that has so far claimed 270,000 lives and infected more than 3.5 million people worldwide. Global experts have been lauding New Zealand for winning it's fight against pandemic and 'eliminating' virus successfully. However, many experts and reports have also claimed that New Zealand's strategy cant work for or countries as New Zealand has various vants including low popular, isolated geographical location, fewer travellers from China and or countries.
Ar argument suggests that cost of implementation of a similar strategy is quite high. Experts reportedly believe that ecomy of country will t be same as two of major industries, travel and education, have been severely affected by strict lockdown measures.
However, before sidelining significance of strategy for or countries, it is also important to te that Coloro, which is roughly same geographic size as New Zealand, with a population of 5.8 million, has more than 16,900 cases confirmed and more than 851 people have died.
doubt, Ardern has been widely lauded for her quick and stringent measures. More importantly, her 'clear communication' with people of country has been hailed as an important step in establishing faith. New Zealand PM has been conducting Facebook Live sessions and press conferences to connect with people and unite m in fight against pandemic.
11:34 IST, May 8th 2020