Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long threatened to send troops into rastern Syria to clear border region of Syrian Kurdish fighters whom Turkey considers a serious security threat. A Turkish invasion looks more likely after President Donald Trump’s sudden anuncement that U.S. troops, who h fought alongside Kurds against Islamic State group, would withdraw from area.

Here is a look at what Turkey wants to achieve in area, and risks and challenges it faces by getting even more deeply involved in Syrian crisis.

What does Turkey want?

Turkey wants to create what it calls a “safe zone” in a stretch of territory along its sourn border with Syria that is currently controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters, kwn as People’s Protection Units, or YPG. Turkey considers YPG as terrorists affiliated with outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has wd a 35-year-long battle against Turkish state. Ankara also views YPG-controlled zone as an “existential threat.”

Erdogan has demanded a “safe zone” that is 30 kilometers (20 miles) deep and stretches more than 480 kilometers (300 miles) toward Iraqi border. He initially h hoped to do it in collaboration with United States but grew frustrated with what he considered to be delaying tactics by U.S. Once secured, Turkey wants to resettle area with 2 million Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey due to conflict in ir home country. How such a massive resettlement would be carried out is unclear. Human rights groups have warned that any escalation of fighting in area could displace hundreds of thousands more people.

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Erdogan has spoken of plans to build towns, vills, hospitals, and schools but also says Turkey, which has alrey spent some $40 billion on refugees, cant afford to do it alone. He has said he will convene a dor conference to help meet cost and has called on European nations to share burden, warning that Turkey could be forced to open “gates” for an influx of migrants to Western nations.

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Kurds vow to fight back

Turkey has carried out two previous incursions into rrn Syria in recent years with help of Syrian rebels. In first offensive in 2016, Turkey pushed back Islamic State group militants west of Euphrates River. In second operation last year, Turkey captured Syrian-Kurdish controlled enclave of Afrin. Those regions are currently ministered by Turkish-backed opposition groups who run m as virtual Turkish-ministered towns.
Analysts say this operation would likely be more complicated. Unwilling to let go of an area y wrested from Islamic State group, battle-hardened Kurdish fighters — trained and equipped by U.S. — have vowed to fight Turks until end.

“It’s a huge area for Turkish military to go into and clearly re will be resistance on part of (Syrian Kurdish forces),” said Bulent Aliriza, of director of Turkey Project at Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Aliriza suggested operation may be a limited one that does t stretch all way to Iraqi border. “That’s what we are going to look at first. How deep and how bro is it, wher it’s all way across from Iraqi border to Euphrates, or just limited to two or three penetration points.” Critics of Trump’s decision fear a Turkish operation could have destabilizing consequences for region, while both Democrats and Republicans have warned that a Turkish attack could le to a large number of fatalities among Kurds, who are holding thousands of captured IS fighters and ir families.

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What about fight against Islamic State group?

One of big question marks surrounding Turkey’s plans is wher fighting Syrian Kurdish forces would allow IS to make a comeback.Turkey insists that global battle against militants won’t suffer, and points to its 2016 incursion, which drove away IS from ar border region. But Kurdish officials have warned that y would have to divert ir forces away from guarding IS prisoners in case of a Turkish assault. Kurdish authorities run more than two dozen detention facilities, scattered around rastern Syria, holding about 10,000 IS fighters. White House has said Turkey will take over responsibility for imprisoned fighters, but it is unclear how that would happen, if it all.Erdogan says Turkey and United States are working separately on plans to repatriate foreign fighters held in Kurdish prisons.

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