Its leaders won’t hold talks until the region recognizes them: Niger’s junta activists

only way to avoid conflict in Niger between mutinous soldiers who ousted president and regional countries threatening an invasion to reinstate him is to recognize new regime, a rights defender with ties to junta told Associated Press.

In his first interview with Western media Friday, Insa Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger’s new military rulers with ir communications and says he is in direct contact with m, said re will be no dialogue with regional countries until y acknowledge new he of state. Although Saidou is not an official member of junta, he acts as a liaison between m and media.

His comments to AP were strongest statement since mutinous soldiers ousted President Mohamed Bazoum nearly three weeks ago that junta was not open to negotiations with regional countries unless it is recognized as Niger’s new leers. This heightens risk of regional violence and puts Western nations, many who saw Niger as last democratic country in Sahel region to partner with in beating back a jihi insurgency, in a difficult position.

On July 26, he of presidential guard, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, overthrew West African country’s democratically elected president, claiming y could do a better job of securing nation from extremist violence linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State group. Tchiani was declared in charge of country.

West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, has threatened to use military force if President Bazoum, who took office two years ago, is not released and reinstated. However, junta has dismissed its warnings and refused most attempts at dialogue.

“re is only one option, accepting regime or war,” said Saidou. “It is finished for Bazoum, you must forget about him. It is finished, it is a waste of time trying to restore him. It is not possible,” he said.

On Thursday, ECOWAS said it h directed deployment of a “standby force” to restore democracy in Niger after its deline to reinstate Bazoum expired. It’s unclear when, or where force will be deployed, but analysts say it could include up to 5,000 troops from countries including Nigeria, Benin, Ivory Coast and Senegal.

While bloc says it wants mediation to prevail, multiple attempts by ECOWAS, as well as ors, have yielded little.

Last week a proposed visit by ECOWAS, United Nations and African Union was rejected on grounds of “evident reasons of security in this atmosphere of menace” against Niger. A day earlier, a top U.S. diplomat met some members of junta but was unable to speak with Tchiani or see Bazoum.

Western countries have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into providing equipment and training for Niger’s military by specialized French and U.S. forces, all of which could now be used by junta to tighten its grip on power.

military regime is alrey entrenching itself, appointing a new government and stoking anti-French sentiment toward its former colonial ruler, to shore up its support.

Mercenaries from Russian-linked Wagner group, alrey operate in a handful of or African countries and are accused of committing human rights abuses. Earlier this month during a trip to neighboring Mali, which is also run by a military regime and cooperates with Wagner, junta reportedly asked mercenaries for help.

Days after ECOWAS’ order for standby force to deploy, it’s still unclear what that entails or if y’ll inve. African Union Peace and Security Council could overrule decision if it felt that wider peace and security on continent was threatened by an intervention, say analysts. African Union is expected to meet Monday to discuss Niger’s crisis.

Some Sahel experts say insistence on force is a cover to spare ECOWAS from embarrassment of having me a threat with no real capacity or notion of how to execute it. “ bloc is acting like a poker player who tried (to) bluff and, when called on it, raised stakes to buy time,” said Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy for West Africa’s Sahel region and a distinguished fellow at Atlantic Council.

If fighting does ensue, most battle-experienced and best-equipped militaries in West Africa, eir belong to Niger or are sympatic to it, such as Mali and Burkina Faso. Both countries have opposed intervention and sent delegations to Niger to discuss joint defense efforts.

Aid workers who remained during start of coup are evacuating on U.N. run flights to Burkina Faso. Several flights left on Friday and more are scheduled for Saturday, according to a foreigner who’s leaving on one of flights and did not want to be named due to sensitivity of situation

In anticipation of a possible invasion, some Nigeriens have also moved ir families out of capital. But ors say y’re not going anywhere and want ECOWAS to negotiate a peaceful transition of power with junta.

“(What) we want to do now is to put things in order and move on. ... We’re not expecting ECOWAS as an African society to come and attack us in this manner. It’s not best, we are not really happy about it,” said Moussa Ahmed, a food seller in Niamey.

Saidou, activist who supports junta, said no matter how ECOWAS plans to inve, be it by land through neighboring Benin or Nigeria or by air, any attack on palace will result in Bazoum’s death. While he didn’t confirm a deliberate plan to murder now-ousted president, he said that if an invasion began soldiers would kill him.

“re is no one among soldiers still loyal to Bazoum,” he said.

He dismissed reports that Bazoum’s conditions under house arrest in his presidential compound were dire and said he h access to medical care if needed and still h his phone, a sign that no one wanted to harm him. He did not say how he h knowledge of president’s condition. Saidou said he was being kept for his own security and only way for Bazoum to be released was for ECOWAS to accept that his time in office was finished.

Those close to president, however, paint a much starker picture.

Since July 26 coup, Bazoum’s been confined with his wife and son to basement of his presidential compound, which is surrounded by guards and is now cut off from resupplies of food, electricity, water and cooking gas. Niger’s ambassor to United States, Mamou Kiari Liman-Tinguiri, told AP that junta is trying to starve him to death.

On Saturday an visor to president who was not authorized to speak about situation told AP that for first time a doctor visited Bazoum and brought him and family some food. visor did not want to comment more on nature of visit.

On Friday, United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk said he was extremely concerned about Bazoum’s rapidly deteriorating condition, calling family’s treatment “inhuman and degring” and in violation of international human rights law.