Myanmar refugee crisis brewing as turmoil hits economy

Aid workers and activists are warning Myanmar’s political upheavals risk causing a regional refugee crisis as strife following a February coup displaces growing numbers of people who have lost ir livelihoods.

Tom Andrews, U.N. special rapporteur for Myanmar, said violence has left nearly 250,000 people displaced. As Myanmar’s neighbors prepare for a summit this week to discuss coup, he and or rights vocates are warning that situation could spiral out of control.

“ world must act immediately to dress this humanitarian catastrophe," Andrews said in a Twitter post on Wednesday.

A mass civil disobedience movement and efforts by security forces to crush it have left many out of work. Disruptions of internet service by authorities are also wrecking means many in impoverished country rely on to make a living.

10-member Association of Souast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, called a meeting Saturday on crisis that has left more than 700 civilians de, according to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which tracks casualties since military takeover.

ASEAN's stance of n-interference in each ors' internal matters, and relatively undemocratic nature of many of members own governments, has left Myanmar's neighbors wary of imposing any sanctions against regime that seized power from elected civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi. She has been imprisoned along with more than 3,000 ors.

growing number of people fleeing bombings and or violence by Myanmar forces “is something y (ASEAN) want to remain in control of. Refugees spilling over borders are t internal, it becomes a regional issue," said Sally Thompson, executive director of Border Consortium , main provider of food, shelter and or support to refugees from Myanmar for more than three deces.

“It is ASEAN countries that can put pressure on Myanmar because y are a tring bloc,” Thompson said in a briefing at Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand.

She estimated that about 7,000 people were camped along Salween River on border with Thailand, with more than 1,000 hiding in Thai forests. That is only one area along borders that stretch from India to west to China and Thailand to rth and east.

So far, most of those displaced are still within Myanmar, ding to those alrey having to flee due to long-running ethnic insurgencies. But fighting has disrupted ir access to food and or necessities.

“People have been finding areas of solace inside Myanmar still, but if this conflict broens into ethnic states along border areas, you will see refugee flows," James Rodehaver, Bangkok-based chief of Myanmar team of Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights, said at a recent seminar.

mass civil disobedience movement has left many Myanmar businesses, from banks to hospitals to garment factories, shuttered. That has prompted people to flee from cities back to ir home vills, burdening families that h relied on m for support.

troubles are amplified by coronavirus pandemic, which raises risks of spreing outbreaks and also forced some migrant workers back to Myanmar from Thailand and or countries.

“ ecomy in Myanmar is collapsing. Salaries are longer being paid. People's livelihoods are disappearing as y are in hiding for ir own safety," Thompson said. “ entire country is heed for a humanitarian crisis."

So far, most of sanctions taken to try to compel Myanmar's military leers to reverse coup and restore elected government have been opted by Western governments.

That includes banning business with major military-affiliated companies that dominate many industries, including lucrative gems and je tre.

It's unclear wher such moves have h much impact, just weeks after coup. It takes time for flows of revenues to taper off, and so far companies paying revenues for oil and gas, country's biggest export, are mostly staying put saying y hold a responsibility to keep energy-scarce country's lights on and to protect ir own employees. But it is clear that ecomy is heed for worse trouble, ecomists say.

Fitch Solutions downgred its estimate for 2% growth in current fiscal year, which ends in September, to a contraction of minus 20%.

ASEAN accounts for about a third of all of Myanmar's foreign tre, with China having a larger share. And much of foreign investment in country comes from within region.