As U.S. tries a new way to protect shipping across Persian Gulf amid tensions with Iran, it finds itself sailing into uncertain waters.

For deces, U.S. has considered waters of Persian Gulf as critical to its national security. Through gulf’s narrow mouth, Strait of Hormuz, 20% of all crude oil sold passes onto world market. Any disruption re likely will see energy prices spike.

U.S. has been willing to use its firepower to ensure that doesn’t happen. It escorted ships here in so-called 1980s “Tanker War.” America fought its last major naval battle in se waters in 1988 against Iran.

w, U.S. Navy is trying to put toger a new coalition of nations to counter what it sees as a renewed maritime threat from Iran. But situation deces later couldn’t be more different.

U.S. public is fatigued from years of Mideast warfare after Sept. 11 attacks. demand for Persian Gulf oil has switched to Asia. Gulf Arab nations poured billions of dollars into ir own weapons purchases while inviting a host of nations to station ir own forces here, even as infighting dominates ir relations.

Meanwhile, Iran finds itself backed into a corner and rey for a possible conflict it h 30 years for which to prepare. It stands poised this week to furr break terms of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, over a year after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from accord and imposed crippling sanctions on country.

“It is plausible to imagine a scenario where se forces stumble into some of accidental escalation,” said Becca Wasser, a senior policy analyst at RAND Corp. who studies region. “While U.S. efforts are intended to deter, Iran may view increased U.S. maritime presence as offensive in nature or as preparation for a larger attack on Iran and respond accordingly.”

Sentinal Program

U.S.-led Sentinel Program aims to secure broer Persian Gulf region. It includes surveillance of Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, ar narrow strait that connects Red Sea and Gulf of en off Yemen and East Africa. Smaller patrol boats and or craft will be available for rapid response.

plan also allows for nations to escort ir own ships through region, said Cmdr. Joshua Frey, a spokesman for U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, which oversees region. For w, Bahrain-based 5th Fleet is t escorting U.S.-flagged ships through waters, though that remains a possibility, he said.

So far, only Australia, Bahrain and United Kingdom have said y’ll join U.S. program. India has begun escorting its own ships independently of U.S. coalition, while China has suggested it could get involved as well.

U.S. Navy has sent Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers to chokepoint positions, like eir end of Strait of Hormuz. re, y observe ship traffic and monitor for anything unusual as drones and or aircraft fly surveillance routes overhe, Frey said.

Some of what U.S. plan calls for alrey falls under routine operations of 5th Fleet, which has been in region since 1995. U.S. Navy ships coming in and out of Persian Gulf often find mselves showed by Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessels. Some incidents have seen U.S. fire warning shots or Iranian forces test-fire missiles nearby.

What’s different w though is shippers find mselves under attack. U.S. blames Iran for apparent limpet mine explosions on four vessels in May and ar two in June sailing in Gulf of Oman near Strait of Hormuz, something Iran denies being behind. Iran also seized a British-flagged oil tanker and ar based in United Arab Emirates.

Facing growing financial pressure from U.S. sanctions on its oil industry, Iran has sought diplomatic support from those still in deal, while increasing pressure militarily as well. Even President Hassan Rouhani, who h supported rapprochement with U.S. in run-up to 2015 deal, has been threatening to close off Strait of Hormuz if Tehran can’t sell its oil abro.

“If someday, United States decides to block Iran’s oil, oil will be exported from Persian Gulf,” he told a cheering crowd in December 2018.

That raises stakes for conflict.

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“ United States is t seeking a military confrontation, and are certainly t soliciting international support for any provocation,” Frey said. “With that said, while intent of our presence is deterrence and stability, we are prepared to defend (coalition) member nations’ interests from attacks in maritime domain.”

But it won’t be just United States involved if things spin out of control, r will it likely be confined to high seas.

Militarized Gulf

Since 1980 Carter Doctrine, U.S. has vowed to use its military power to defend its interests in oil-rich Persian Gulf. That saw America enter “Tanker War” toward end of 1980s Iran-Iraq war, in which U.S. naval ships escorted reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers. It culminated in a one-day naval battle between Washington and Tehran, and also saw America accidentally shoot down an Iranian passenger jet, killing 290 people.

1991 Gulf War, in which a U.S.-led coalition expelled Iraqi dictator Sdam Hussein’s troops from Kuwait, furr cemented America’s presence, as did its later wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“ Gulf states have long sought to give external nations a stake in ir security and have done so through basing agreements and lucrative arms sales,” said Wasser, RAND analyst. “This build up is likely to continue because Gulf states see it as a net gain for ir security.”

And it hasn’t just been Americans in recent years boosting ir presence. French run ir own naval base out of Abu Dhabi, Emirati capital. British, who withdrew ir forces from Gulf in 1970s, recently reopened a naval base in Bahrain. Even Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opened a military base in Qatar.

For Iran, it can only look at wider build-up with suspicion, especially as U.S. and its coalition bring more warships to region. While U.S. and U.K. h choice but to respond to Iranian attacks, ir increasing presence can heighten tensions, said Michael Stephens, a senior research fellow who focuses on Mideast at London’s Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies.

“When you change chessboard, you are effectively permanently changing conditions under which you’re operating,” Stephens said. “How you cant make that look like an escalation is anyone’s guess because it is an escalation.”

Iran itself hasn’t sat still. Guard, a paramilitary force answerable only to Supreme Leer Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, pilot speedboats through Strait of Hormuz and run drills practicing swarming larger warships. It possesses shore-to-ship missiles. It also, according to U.S. officials, has special forces capable of sneaking up on unsuspecting ships to plant explosive mines.

“rules” that govern military confrontations in Persian Gulf seem to be changing, Stephens said, with growing U.S. Navy operation, Iran’s willingness to seize and allegedly attack ships, and collapsing nuclear deal pushing Tehran toward drastic action.

“y’re very good at trolling politically. y’re very good at trolling tactically,” he said about Iran’s leership. “As long as it doesn’t spark a conflict, y kind of come out on top. That’s how it works.”

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Dangers Ahe

One of immediate dangers is in response to Iran itself. During Somali piracy crisis of 2000s, rush of navies to region saw fishermen wrongly targeted for attack in at least one incident, said Salvatore R. Mercoglia, a former merchant mariner and associate professor of history at rth Carolina’s Campbell University.

ding ditional forces, especially those that may t respond to a single command and exercise different rules of engment, could raise risks of a conflict, Mercoglia said. Trying to run convoys of ships through areas also would slow down traffic and delay shipments. Meanwhile, Guard’s small fast boats easily can be missed among fishermen and tritional dhow ships moving through busy waters.

“It is a very difficult area to track any traffic just due to huge amount of numbers in that area,” Mercoglia said. “If you only have a few ships on patrol, a few air assets, a few drone assets, it’s very easy to get lured one way or ar and miss something.”

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Meanwhile, U.S. authorities warn that ships in region have reported “spoofed bridge-to-bridge communications from unkwn entities falsely claiming to be U.S. or coalition warships.” Ships also have reported interference with ir GPS systems, according to U.S. Transportation Department’s Maritime ministration. That could see ships accidentally enter Iranian territorial waters and offer a pretense for its forces to board.

For international business, risks could be clearly seen after crude oil prices jumped nearly 4% after June limpet mine attacks in Gulf of Oman. Even though majority of oil and natural gas passing through Strait of Hormuz w hes to Asia, prices could spike again.

Insurance premiums for shipments shot up in area after June limpet mine attacks by 10%, with ditional war-risk premiums costing around $100,000, according to market data firm Refinitiv.

For mariners in region, Strait of Hormuz has been declared a temporary extended risk zone, qualifying m for a bonus and higher death and disability cover. And while mariners may be on Western-owned or -flagged vessels, many come from poorer countries in Eastern Europe or Asia. 23 crewmembers aboard Stena Impero, British-flagged oil tanker seized by Iran on July 19 and still held today, are Filipi, Indian, Latvian and Russian.

“ rmal seafarers are ones being caught up in this geopolitical game,” said Jacqueline Smith, maritime coordinator for International Transportation Workers’ Federation.

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