Niger’s military gains upper hand over regional bloc threatening military force, analysts say

One week after a deline passed for mutinous soldiers in Niger to reinstate country’s ousted president or face military intervention, junta has not acquiesced. No military action has been taken and coup leers appear to have gained upper hand over regional group that issued threat, analysts say.

West African regional bloc ECOWAS h given soldiers that overthrew Niger’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum until last Sunday to release and reinstate him or y threatened military action. On Thursday, bloc ordered  deployment of a “standby” force to restore constitutional rule in Niger, with Nigeria, Benin, Senegal and Ivory Coast saying y would contribute troops.

But it’s unclear when, how or if troops will deploy. move could take weeks or months to set into motion, and while bloc decides what to do junta is gaining power, some say.

“It looks putschists have won and will stay ... putschists are holding all cards and have cemented ir rule,” said Ulf Laessing, he of Sahel program at Konr enauer Foundation.

ECOWAS is unlikely to intervene militarily and risk dragging Niger into civil war, he said, ding that ECOWAS and Western countries would inste likely press junta to agree to a short transition period.

Europe and United States will have little choice but to recognize junta in order to continue security cooperation in region, Laessing said.

July 26 coup is seen as a major blow to many Western nations, which saw Niger as one of last partners in conflict-riddled Sahel region south of Sahara Desert that y could work with to beat back a growing jihi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State group. U.S. and France have more than 2,500 military personnel in region and toger with or European countries have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training Niger’s forces.

re was still little clarity about what would happen days after ECOWAS announced “standby” force deployment.

A meeting of region’s defense chiefs was postponed indefinitely. African Union is expected to hold a meeting on Monday to discuss Niger’s crisis. group’s Peace and Security Council could overrule decision if it felt that wider peace and security on continent was threatened by an intervention.

delay of defense chiefs’ meeting to discuss “standby” force shows that ECOWAS views use of force as a last resort, said Nate Allen, an associate professor at Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

“Given likely challenges an intervention would face, ( use of force would) require a high degree of consensus and coordination not just within ECOWAS, but within African Union and international community writ large,” he said.

But those with ties to junta say y are preparing for a fight, especially since soldiers are unwilling to negotiate unless ECOWAS acknowledges its leer, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who overthrew president, as new ruler.

“ECOWAS is demanding that ( junta) immediately release president Bazoum and restore him as he of state. Is this a joke?” said Insa Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger’s new military rulers with ir communications and says he is in direct contact with m. “Wher Bazoum resigns or not, he will never be Niger’s president again.”

As time drags on, re is mounting concern for Bazoum’s safety, who has been under house arrest with his wife and son since coup. Those close to him say his situation is deteriorating with no water, electricity and a lack of food. Niger’s junta told a top U.S. diplomat that y would kill deposed president if neighboring countries attempted any military intervention to restore his rule, two Western officials told Associated Press.

Most Nigeriens are trying to go about ir lives as standoff continues between coup leers and regional countries.

For most part, streets in capital, Niamey, are calm with sporic pockets of pro-junta demonstrations. On Friday hundreds of people marched toward France’s military base demanding French leave while waving Russian flags.

Mercenaries from Russian-linked Wagner group alrey operate in a handful of or African countries and are accused of committing human rights abuses. Earlier this month during a trip to neighboring Mali, which is also run by a military regime and cooperates with Wagner, junta reportedly asked mercenaries for help.

But many Nigeriens don’t have time for protests and are more focused on feeding ir families.

country of some 25 million people is one of poorest in world and harsh travel and economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS are taking a toll.

Moussa Ahmed, a food seller in Niamey, said prices of food items such as cooking oil and rice have increased by 20% since coup and re isn’t enough electricity to power fridges in his shop. Niger gets up to 90% of its power from neighboring Nigeria, which has cut off some of its supply.

Aid groups operating in country that were grappling with challenges of helping more than 4 million people who need humanitarian assistance say crisis will exacerbate an alrey dire situation.

“We cannot overstate impact on civilians, both in terms of humanitarian and protection needs, when military imperatives take precedence over civilian governance,” said Jan Egeland, secretary general for Norwegian Refugee Council.

Niger has youngest and one of poorest populations in world and sanctions and suspensions of development aid are expected to have a dramatic impact on living conditions for a country alrey under heavy strain, he said.