Pakistan Elections 2024: With No Victor In Sight, Will Nawaz-Bilawal Tie-Up Stop Imran's PTI

Addressing a massive gathering at Lahore’s Model Town, the disgraced former Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif claimed “prematurely” that his party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz would form a government in Pakistan. While rejoicing his own victory from the NA-130 constituency in Lahore, Sharif boasted how his party has emerged as the “single largest party” in the highly intense 2024 general elections. However, one thing he glossed over was the fact that the independent candidates who were backed by Ex-PM Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf have managed to lead the polls, destroying Sharif’s dream of forming a majority government.

In light of this, the PML-N supremo who came back from his self-imposed and lavish exile in London, said that he is open to forming a coalition with none other than Bilawal Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). During his address, Nawaz mentioned that he had asked his brother former Pakistan PM Shehbaaz Sharif to sit with leaders of PPP and JUI-F and discuss the future possibility of forming a “unified government”. “I have tasked Shehbaz Sharif to meet Fazlur Rehman, Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui and Asif Ali Zardari,” Nawaz told the charged crowd, alluding to the possibility of forming a government by joining hands with the archnemisis.

Nawaz opened his arms after the independent candidates backed by PTI started to lead the roster election results. With PTI chief Imran Khan in jail and with no election symbol, the party members contesting independently showed that both Imran and the party will continue to stay in mainstream Pakistan politics. Meanwhile, the son of former Pak PM Benazir Bhutto and PPP chairman, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has mentioned in the past that he is not keen on forming a coalition with the Sharif family all over again. Hence, the current figures beg the question, will the sworn rivals come together to hold on to the power or will Pakistan continue to dwindle into chaos?

Three Possibilities

When it comes to the numbers, the voting was held in 265 of the 266 constituencies in Pakistan's National Assembly and a political party needs 133 seats. At the time of writing this article, PTI-backed candidates are leading in 94 seats, PML-N stands at 63 and PPP is leading in 50 seats, The Express Tribune reported. With no clear victor in the highly intense elections, there are three major possibilities that can emerge:

• PML-N join hands to form a coalition government with PPP and JUI-F. 
• PPP and PTI-backed candidates join hands and form the government.
• PTI-backed candidates form a national unity government with other smaller parties.

On papers, there was one more possibility of PTI-backed independent candidates supporting PML-N. However, the intense tussle between the Nawaz and Imran camps, makes it impossible to come to reality.

Nawaz-Bilawal coalition: Can sworn enemies join hands to form a government?

In a charged speech, Sharif tasked Shehbaz Sharif to meet Fazlur Rehman, Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, and Asif Ali Zardari and specified that both Sharif and former Finance Minister Ishaq Dar would engage in “outreach efforts”. He even went on to invite some of the PTI-backed independent candidates to support his party. “We are inviting everyone today to rebuild this injured Pakistan and sit with us. Our agenda is only a happy Pakistan and you know what we have done before," the disgraced Pakistani politician exclaimed. Alluding to forming a coalition government, Sharif insisted that the country can not have elections again and again. “We can’t hold elections again and again. We were all sitting together yesterday but didn’t address you because the results were not in," the former Pakistani premier remarked.

While Nawaz sought support from the PPP, Bilawal, the chairman of the PPP has ruled out the possibility of a coalition government with Nawaz in the past. In January this year, the Pakistani political scion refused any chances of forming a coalition with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) after the February 8 general elections. "Who told you that the PPP will form a coalition government with them [PML-N]? I have stated this before as well: 'Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me'." the former Foreign Minister responded when asked if he is planning to align with PML-N, Geo News reported. "If they were banking on the [PPP] to form their government, then it will be tough for them," he furthered.

In a separate interview, Bhutto insisted that he would not become foreign minister if Nawaz came to power again. “I will not become a foreign minister if Nawaz comes to power again, I can’t participate in the same old politics. If he breaks away from that and creates an environment that benefits democracy in the country, then I can stand with that,” the 35-year-old Pakistani politician was quoted as saying in an interview with Voice of America Urdu. With a meeting between Shehbaz Sharif and Former Pak president Asif Ali Zardari on the pipelines, it will be interesting to see if both sides can forget their animosities just to form a government.

Can Bilawal take help from PTI-backed independent candidates?

Making him the face of the prime ministerial post, Bhutto can also seek ties with PTI-backed independent candidates who are currently ruling the polls. During the pre-election campaign, both Bilawal and his party hinted at this scenario.  “We may enter into an (electoral) alliance with other parties, including the PTI, against the PML-N,”  Punjab PPP acting president Rana Farooq Saeed said at a press conference in Lahore in November last year. In January this year, Zardari hinted at releasing over 10,000 jailed workers of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party after coming to power. "The PML-N of Sharifs is taking revenge from the PTI. I ask the PTI workers to support me. If I come to power, I will set free all political workers, including the PTI's,' Bilawal promised at a well-attended rally in Lahore. Bilawal sympathetic stance towards PTI makes many wonder if a coalition between the PPP and Imran’s PTI is a possibility.

Can Pakistan witness its first “truly independent PM”

Since PTI-backed candidates are running independently and not with a party symbol, the party cannot form a government on its own, even if it clinchs the highest number of seats. One of the major reasons for this is the fact that PTI members are not allotted a quota of minority seats in the assembly without a party symbol. Without ensuring reservations for minorities, the party can not form a government. Hence, this leaves the party with two options – either join hands with the big guns or hold its ground and send a contender to be the Leader of the House. If PTI-backed independents want to emerge as the biggest group in Parliament, they can form alliances with small existing parties. According to Dawn, one of the names that is being mentioned is the Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM) which is already a registered party and has formed a coalition with PTI in local government elections. This way the PTI-backed independents will get the reserved seats they need and send a contender for the Leader of the House.

Earlier today senior PTI leader Barrister Gohar Khan ruled out forging an alliance with Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). "We are not in contact with PPP or PML-N," the PTI leader told Geo News. “We are not intending to form a coalition government with PPP and PML-N. We will form the government at the Centre and Punjab,” he added.

Is Pakistan heading towards chaos?

What makes Pakistan a complicated case is the fact that it is marred with political instability. In the struggling nation’s 77-year history, no Prime Minister in Pakistan has ever completed a full term in office. The excessive influence of the army and frequent military and political coups are touted as one of the major reasons behind the instability. It is also pertinent to note that Pakistan is currently facing a historic economic crisis. 

The presence of TTP and the political tussle between the Imran and Nawaz camps has added fuel to the fire. Amid all the chaos, not a single party gaining a majority in the 2024 general elections can become concerning for Pakistan and its future.