Russia-Ukraine standoff: Some key developments so far amid escalating tensions

A tussle for strategic dominance and a dispute over territorial borders have been escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which could potentially lead to a full-fledged conflict. Russia perceives Ukraine as a crucial buffer for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), whereas, Ukraine sees Russia as an invading force that has already gained control over some parts of its territory. Ukrainian and Western officials are concerned that a Russian military buildup near Ukraine could lead to Moscow's intention to invade its former Soviet ally. However, the Kremlin maintains that it has no such plans, accusing Ukraine and its Western backers of making the allegations to hide their own purported aggressive intentions. 

Roots of Russia-Ukraine standoff  

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula after the country's then-President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power by mass protests in 2014. Russia has been accused by Ukraine and the West of sending troops and weapons to support the rebels. Moscow refuted this, claiming that Russians who sided with the rebels did so voluntarily. The conflict in Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland, known as Donbas, has claimed the lives of over 14,000 people so far, as per the Associated Press (AP). Meanwhile, Moscow also encouraged Kyiv to implement the Minsk agreement. The Minsk agreement was signed in 2015 with the aim to end the conflict in Ukraine's Donbas area, but efforts to reach a political settlement have failed, and sporadic clashes have continued along the sensitive line of contact.

The current Russian military build-up & concerns of West

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is now in a position to start military action against Ukraine anytime, with more than 100,000 troops deployed near the country's border. The US and NATO have termed the movements and concentrations of the military in and around Ukraine as "unprecedented". Meanwhile, Putin has stated unequivocally that Ukraine's desire to join NATO is a red line for Moscow.

He also raised alarm over NATO members' intentions to establish military training camps in Ukraine. He claimed that this would provide them with a military foothold in Ukraine even if it does not join NATO. Russia has also slammed the US and its NATO partners for arming Ukraine and undertaking joint drills, claiming that this encourages Ukrainian hawks to use force to recapture rebel-held territory. 

Russia's draft proposals on security guarantees

Russia's Foreign Ministry presented draft proposals on security guarantees between Russia, the US, and NATO countries in Europe last month. The proposals seek to restrict NATO's expansion in eastern Europe. Among several other terms, it also calls on the US and Russia to refrain from placing intermediate and shorter-range missiles within striking distance of each other's territory. However, proposals were outrightly rejected by the US as well as NATO in the recently concluded meeting with Russia.

US & NATO convey written response to Russia's security guarantees proposals

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, January 26, the US and NATO presented a written response to Russia against the draft on security guarantees. NATO rejected the list of demands Russia outlined in its proposals. Both the US and NATO stated that they would uphold the post-1997 borders and also sought the "re-establishment" of diplomatic relations between the US-led bloc and Russia. While NATO also urged Moscow to engage in a dialogue-based approach to resolving hostilities in Ukraine's Donbas region.

Paris talks: Russia, Ukraine agree on observing 'ceasefire' in Donbas 

After eight hours of talks at a four-way meeting in Paris on Wednesday, January 26, Russia and Ukraine agreed that all parties should observe a "ceasefire" in Ukraine's eastern region. Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin's Deputy Chief of Staff, stated that "the truce must be followed unconditionally" by all parties, Sputnik reported. Moscow and Kyiv had a Normandy Format meeting in Paris, with representatives from France and Germany in attendance. According to the report, the four nations compiled a list of political issues relating to the Minsk agreements on the settlement in eastern Ukraine and reached an agreement on a truce in Donbas.

Image: AP