Bear Hug Diplomacy! What Putin’s Upcoming Visit Means for India-Russia Ties?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit New Delhi next year for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. On similar lines, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow on July 8-9, 2024, for the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said, “Our leaders have an agreement to hold meetings once a year. This time, it’s our turn. We received Mr. Modi’s invitation and we will certainly consider it positively.”

The visit comes at a critical juncture in global geopolitics. The “special operation” of Russia in Ukraine has crossed the 1000-day mark, with over 45,000 killed in the conflict between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, the rebel offensive against the Assad regime in Syria gaining ground, and the soon-to-be U.S. President ready to break the global supply chain and wage trade wars with states not to his liking.

India’s foreign policy stands firm on the pillars of strategic autonomy, and Moscow appreciates that. Despite pressure from India’s Western partners over Moscow’s war in Kyiv, New Delhi has remained independent in its approach towards the West and Russia. During his visit to Moscow last year, India’s Minister of External Affairs, Dr S. Jaishankar , hailed Russia as a “valued and time-tested” partner. His Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, applauded India’s “responsible approach” to world affairs, particularly the war in Ukraine.

The Tightrope of Diplomacy:

India came under intense heat over its non-condemnation of the war in Ukraine. However, New Delhi’s play of cards ensured closeness to Russia while increasing its cooperation with the West. In 2023, Modi was honoured with a state visit at the White House in June and an invitation from the Kremlin.

The G20 Summit, hosted by India in 2023, was a “Triumph for Indian foreign policy”, as per Sergey Lavrov. Not only didn’t India successfully pass the New Delhi Declaration, but it also navigated the political battlefield between the West, Russia, and the Global South.

In a statement, Lavrov, while batting for India's permanent seat at the UNSC, said, “The G20 Summit in New Delhi that took place last year was truly a triumph for Indian foreign policy, the triumph for multilateral diplomacy, and it was possible primarily due to the chairmanship of G20. It didn’t allow the final communique to be one-sided; it reflects the perfect balance of interest.”

Cheap Oil: Bring It In, Sell It Out

India overtook China as the largest importer of cheap Russian oil in July. Crude comprised 44% of India’s imports, crossing a record 2.07 million barrels daily (bpd). According to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Trade, this is 4.2% higher than in June and 12% higher than a year ago. This is comparatively higher than China’s July imports of 1.76 million bpd per Chinese customs data.

However, India is not the only nation benefiting from Russian crude. Indian refiners are surfing on cheap oil, processing it for domestic needs and selling the excess to Europe. India’s crude oil exports to Europe between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 have risen by 253788%.

In May of last year, German Ambassador to India Philipp Ackermann stated that receiving refined oil from India is "no problem" for Berlin. Months after India's actions helped "stabilise" the world's oil and gas markets, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said he was "waiting for a thank you" from Europe.

Why Modi Is Important For Russia

Putin, during a press conference on the sidelines of the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit, called Modi “a big friend” of Russia. Modi was further bestowed with Russia’s highest civilian honour, the “Order of Saint Andrew the Apostle,” in recognition of his efforts to enhance the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between the two nations.

The warm welcome in Russia underscored the importance of India, its support, its people, and its market for Moscow—a relationship so “unique” that Washington believes can end the three-year-long war. Noting the growth in commerce, Putin and Modi agreed to a $100 billion bilateral trade goal by 2030. In fiscal year 2023–2024, the total value of bilateral goods trade was $65.7 billion. In the most recent fiscal year, India's imports from Russia totalled $61.4 billion, or 93% of its overall commerce, while its exports to Russia totalled $4.3 billion.

Modi's trip to Russia demonstrated India's strategic independence. Within a month, the PM met with Putin at the G-7 summit, showing India's balanced approach to international relations.

Similarly, India skilfully crafted a crucial agreement that had something for everyone during the G-20 meeting it held last year, allowing it to pass with ease. India successfully brought together the member countries' disparate and competing interests, resulting in agreement and collaboration.

However, India has not been a one-sided supporter of Russia. Russia remains an essential partner for India, even as its relations with the U.S. are growing. It is doubtful that India-Russian ties will lose their strategic and economic importance. Russia does not criticise India's strategy like Washington, which promotes a symbiotic relationship between the two.