Explained: Will Russian invasion of Ukraine push Japan to reverse its 'no-nuclear' policy?

Japan’s government and lawmakers on both ruling and opposition blocs indulged in a heated debate on Saturday concerning Russia’s activation of the nuclear deterrence forces bringing the country’s post WWII “three nonnuclear principles” into question. Tokyo, has long declared that it will neither possess nor manufacture nuclear arsenal, but the country’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, in a televised address, created a stir after he announced that Japan must begin a debate on a nuclear-sharing arrangement with the United States in face of Moscow’s threat of the nuclear warfare as it ensues fierce invasion into the sovereign territory, whilst warning its West adversaries of a nuclear attack, should intervention occur.

“Holding discussions on the reality about how the world’s safety is protected should not be considered a taboo,” Abe told Japanese in a televised speech, according to Kyodo.

Japan must 'consider' adopting nuclear arms: Abe

It is pertinent to mention here that Japan, in its major post-WWII policy change, had shunned nuclear weapons. But the former LDP policy chief Shoichi Nakagawa has now stirred a debate by suggesting that Japan must consider adopting nuclear arms in view of the emerging nuclear threat and the military belligerence from China in the East Sea and the South China Sea, and Russia over the disputed Kuril Islands which Tokyo recognizes as the Northern Territory. 

Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev also asserted this week that Japan and Moscow will never achieve consensus on Kuril Islands after the latter stalled a WWII peace agreement over Tokyo’s stance on the war with Ukraine and Western coordinated sanctions. This has loomed a cloud of uncertainty over Japan’s nonnuclear proliferation stance.  Both Russia and Japan never signed the peace treaty for ending World War II hostilities over disputes related to Russian-held islands, north of Hokkaido, at the end of the war. 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe walks off after delivering a speech during a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of the bombing at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park. Credit: AP

As Kremlin ordered its military commanders to prepare for the D-day nuclear evacuation drills under the instructions of the authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed worry about events unfolding during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The former criticized Moscow for its “extremely unjustifiable and absolutely unacceptable” decision of unilaterally stalling peace talks, which came as a retaliation to Japan sanctioning the Russian entities and freezing assets in coordinated effort with the West.

Will Japan reverse its decades-old ‘no-nuclear weapons’ policy?

Both Russia and Japan have decades-old territorial controversy regarding the autonomy of the four islands— Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan, and Habomai— which the Soviet Union captured in 1945. With the post-WWII peace treaty stalling, the attempt to foster bilateral relations has been shredded. The question arises—Will Japan now acquire nuclear munitions flipping its longstanding rejection as tentative talk snub, reversing decades-old ‘no-nuclear weapons’ policy?

Japan, notably, has stepped up the economic measures against Russia in line with the G7 partners as retaliatory measures against the brutal offensive of Moscow on Ukraine. Russia’s offensive or subsequent victory in Ukraine will not only threaten the European and transatlantic security but will also embolden China to launch a military op in the contentious Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, and Taiwan strait. In order to deter Russia, Japan has scrapped the issuance of Russian sovereign debt and is planning to sanction Japanese firms from exporting military equipment to Russian agencies. The Washington-aligned nation has also banned Russian banks from the SWIFT international transaction payment system. This has also prompted lawmakers in Japan to mull the potential retaliatory consequences, both economically, politically, and militarily; and rethink its war-renouncing constitution.

A correspondent stands in the rubble in Hiroshima on Sept. 8, 1945, a month after the first atomic bomb ever used in warfare was dropped by the US. Credit: AP

Prime Minister Kishida, who vouches for support of the ally Ukraine, has been enhancing his criticism against Moscow’s military intervention labelling it  “a serious violation of international law and a major violation of the United Nations Charter.” He had also accused Putin’s act as a military “aggression” on a sovereign country, adding that such belligerence must not go ‘unchallenged’.

The mushroom cloud about one hour after the nuclear bomb was detonated above Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945. Credit: AP 

Survivors of the explosion in Hiroshima in August 1945. Credit: AP 

Japanese ministers, in a paradigm shift of tone, are calling for the government to alter its non-nuclear stance and adopt a NATO-style system—base the nuclear weapons in Tokyo under Washington’s custody. “Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has its three non-nuclear principles, but it should not treat as a taboo discussion on the reality of how the world is kept safe,” Abe said on state TV.

Territorial dispute with Moscow related to 'Northern Territories' forces Tokyo to rethink nuclear arms policy

While his thought was widely speculated, sitting Prime Minister Kishida told the parliament that such an arrangement would violate Japan’s commitment not to possess, produce, or allow nuclear weapons on its territory. But the territorial dispute with Moscow related to the “Northern Territories” is also scrambling for Japan to reconsider the cost of its territorial concessions, particularly after signing a peace treaty from World War II with Russia has been scrapped in its entirety. Kishida had iterated that Russia’s fierce military offensive on Ukraine not only jeopardizes the EU security but also challenges the international order and all of Indo-Pacific.

Japan’s LDP General Council Chairman Tatsuo Fukuda told reporters that “no debate (on nuclear deterrence) should be avoided.” Sanae Takaichi, the party’s policy chief, has said that Tokyo “shouldn’t contain discussions on whether to make an exception to the three nonnuclear principles calling for not allowing nuclear weapons to be brought into the country.” We should not be in the Reiwa era (from 2019) with Showa-era (1926-1989) values,” Ichiro Matsui, head of the opposition party Nippon Ishin no Kai (the Japan Innovation Party), warned, reminding the significance of nuclear weapons and Japan’s national security in view of the current geopolitical context.

“If (Ukraine) had nukes, Russia would not have invaded it,” a senior Defense Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity told state agency, adding that in 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine had the world’s third-biggest nuclear arsenal but had transferred weapons to Russia after the two struck the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1994.