Putin can declare formal war on Ukraine by May 9 for full mobilisation of forces: US

US and Western officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin could formally declare a war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, more than two months after he announced a ‘special’ operation on the neighbouring country. The declaration of war, according to a CNN report, would allow the full mobilisation of Russia’s reserve forces as they attempt to conquer eastern and southern Ukraine. May 9 is also known as Russia’s ‘Victory Day’ as it commemorates the defeat of the Nazis in 1945. 

As per the report, Western officials have believed for a long that Putin could use the leverage of the country’s Victory Day to announce either a military achievement in Ukraine, an escalation in hostilities, or even both. But, now the officials in the West have started to hone in on one scenario in which Putin formally declares war on Ukraine on May 9. However, it is to note that till now, the Russian government has insisted that the ongoing conflict is only a “special military operation” for the “denazification” of Ukraine. 

If not a formal declaration of war, Putin can annex the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, the report stated. Earlier on Monday, Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said that Washinton has “highly credible” intelligence reports that Russia will try to annex Luhansk and Donetsk “some time in mid-May,” 

There are also indications that Russia could be planning to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson, stated the report. Even US State Department Spokesperson Ned price had said on Monday that there is “good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything they can to use” May 9 to promote its agenda. 

Price said, "We've seen the Russians really double down on their propaganda efforts, probably, almost certainly, as a means to distract from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine".

Price added that he had “seen the speculation that Russia may formally declare war” on May 9, and said, “that would be a great irony if Moscow used the occasion of 'Victory Day' to declare war, which in itself would allow them to surge conscripts in a way they're not able to do now, in a way that would be tantamount to revealing to the world that their war effort is failing, that they are floundering in their military campaign and military objectives."

Just last week, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has told LBC Radio, “I think he will try to move from his 'special operation’...He's been rolling the pitch, laying the ground for being able to say 'look, this is now a war against Nazis, and what I need is more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder.’” Wallace also said, “that he “would not be surprised, and I don't have any information about this, that he is probably going to declare on this May Day that 'we are now at war with the world's Nazis and we need to mass mobilize the Russian people.’”

What happens if Russia declares formal war?

The formal declaration of war on May 9 could galvanise Russian citizens and surge the popular opinion toward the invasion. Additionally, under the law, the declaration of war would allow the Kremlin leader to mobilise reserve forces and draft conscripts. According to the officials cited by CNN, Russia presently needs more soldiers as it tackles a manpower shortage. 

Image: AP