Putin's 'failure' in Ukraine war means 'demise of Russia's arms industry': Ex UK diplomat

Russia has accounted for an estimated 19% of all exports of major arms globally during the period between 2017 and 2021, and its defeat in the war with Ukraine will lead to the demise of its arms industry, ex-UK Naval attache to Moscow, John Dobson, said in a Sunday Guardian piece. Dobson opined that the countries that trade in arms as well as purchase weapons from Russia would in turn question the credibility of the future delivery and weaponry reliance should Moscow get defeated in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. 

'Putin may not be able to achieve his objectives': ex-UK Naval attache

There’s now “growing evidence” that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be able to achieve his objectives in Ukraine, as per Dobson. Chances are, that Putin might fail in his pursuit of conquering entire Ukraine and incorporating it into a new Russian empire as the West continues to flow the advanced weaponry that helps the Ukrainian military put up a strong resistance against invading enemy troops, said Dobson. This implies, that unlike former Russian Tsar Peter the Great, who, Russia’s President Putin compared himself with, military goals of territorial expansion for Moscow under the sitting leader might not be achieved. 

Several of the top Russian generals have either been killed by Ukrainian forces or have been fired by angry Putin, the ex-UK Naval attache to Russia said. He stressed that this fact has not gone “unnoticed around the world,” and that Russia's “dismal performance in Ukraine” is more obvious as the conflict dragged on for several months. Many countries that have been purchasing their weapons from Russia are now questioning their reliability, Dobson wrote in the Sunday Guardian piece.

"Russia's general sales pitch for its weapons has always been that they are cheaper and easier to maintain than Western alternatives... But this pitch may no longer be effective for many countries that have seen Russian equipment losses and failures on the battlefield," Dobson further wrote. 

Since launching its all-out brutal invasion, Russia has lost 1,000 tanks, 50 helicopters, 400 artillery pieces, and the failure rate of its advanced missile systems is as high as 60%, the UK Naval expert estimated. And as Moscow now grapples under the barrage of foreign sanctions, it may also be harder to manufacture weapons without access to "foreign components like circuit boards." This in turn means that the nations that buy Russian tanks and fighter jets will now have to look for alternatives elsewhere as they could not hold on for long their defence requirements, Dobson claimed.

"In years to come, historians will look back on this unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and list the numerous unintended consequences of the war, not least the demise of Russia's arms industry, arising from Putin's bizarre and illogical decision on 24 February 2022,” Dobson argued in his piece.