Russia-Ukraine war: How will Moscow's actions impact Hungary PM Orban's chances in polls?

Putin’s closest ally in the European Union, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is prepared for an election victory on Sunday, toppling Budapest’s united opposition party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Orban, the controversial EU leader, has been widely criticized and flagged for his pro-Russian stance by European lawmakers. His remarks that his country’s overall “good relations” with Russia are a necessity due to the geographical location, made Hungary’s membership in the European Union and NATO Alliance look questionable. 

Orban had also, in the past, assertively refused to “rule out establishing political cooperation with Russia on certain issues” in the “world of diplomacy.” As Russia concentrated troops on the highly volatile frontier with Ukraine, and the EU nations panicked over the prospect of an all-out military offensive, Hungarian leader Orban instead of negotiating and formulating a strategy to defend NATO and the EU, was cozying up with Russia. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference following talks at the PM's office in the Castle of Buda in Budapest, Hungary. Credit: Zoltan Math/MTI via Associated Press

Orban 'rubbing against a qualified case of treason'

According to one European lawmaker, who at the time spoke on condition of anonymity, Hungary’s Prime Minister was "roughly rubbing against a qualified case of treason”. Orban, though, downplayed the talks he held with Russia’s authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin, saying that it is important that his country can strike a deal for cheap gas from Moscow. His meeting came around the time EU’s foreign ministers sent dire warnings to President Putin that Russia will face economic consequences if it attacks Ukraine. French MEP Nathalie Loiseau, instead, sent warnings to Orban against jeopardizing the EU’s united front against Kremlin. 

"We have no doubt, that Vladimir Putin is trying to divide us. So I sincerely hope that Viktor Orbán realizes what is at stake and that he will stick to the message of unity of the European Union," Loiseau told reporters in Paris. 

A convoy transporting Russian President Vladimir Putin in central Budapest, Hungary during his official visit to Hungary. Credit: Lajos Soos/MTI via Associated Press

Ukraine infringes rights of ethnic Hungarians: Budapest

In the recent days of his election campaigning, Moscow-friendly Prime Minister Obran completely changed his tone. And while his geopolitical interests deprived his popular support in the EU and NATO, and he struggled to undo and neutralize his pro-Putin rhetorics, Putin’s EU ally has managed to retain his power in the upcoming general election.

Hungary’s leader is widely known for rigorous promotion of “eastern opening” strengthening the political, economic, and trade ties with its neighbour Russia. Orban is also a leader who attempted to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Hungary and Ukraine have long indulged in a tussle over the latter’s anti-minority policies.

Ukraine’s parliament in 2017 adopted the law “On Ensuring the Functioning of the Ukrainian Language as the State Language” which Budapest slammed as an infringement of the rights of ethnic Hungarians and trampling of the Transcarpathian ethnic minority by Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

Hungary’s Foreign Affairs Minister Peter Szijjarto said in an interview with pro-government Magyar Nemzet that Budapest, despite being a part of the NATO alliance, is not interested in defending Ukraine’s sovereignty over “whatever gestures [Ukraine] made so far” about rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine.

“In the context of the security situation in Eastern Europe, I have told our EU and NATO colleagues frankly that if the Ukrainians do not back down from this policy, it will very much limit the Hungarian government’s ability to provide any kind of support to Ukraine, even in this conflict", Budapest’s chief diplomat had asserted, making his country’s posture clear in the Russia Ukraine conflict.

The Hungarian diplomat also said that Hungary’s foreign policy will strictly be conducted “based on its national interests” as he pushed the rhetoric of a pragmatic, relationship of mutual respect with Russia. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Credit: Alexei Nikolsky/ Kremlin Pool Photo via Associated Press.

Orban's ties with Moscow’s Putin under renewed scrutiny

Long after Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine, Orban’s Fidesz party faced a challenging political situation that erupted during the recent weeks of his election campaign. Hungary, which remained hardened in its stance of maintaining close ties with Russia citing its dependency on Russian gas, scrambled to realign its geopolitical narrative as its relationship with Moscow’s Putin came under renewed scrutiny. In what may have been out of the fear of an end to his political career, Orban went mute and in midst of all criticism from the European policymakers, Putin’s most reliable ally altered his country’s rules of regional engagement. 

Hungary's right-wing populist Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, center, addresses thousands of supporters as they gather in Budapest, Hungary. Credit: Anna Szilagyi via Associated Press.

“Let’s preserve Hungary’s peace and security!” read the bold message on the taxpayer-funded posters featuring the Hungarian PM during the election campaign. “I’m not accountable before the Lord for the people of Ukraine, but for the people of Hungary,” the prime minister said in a radio interview, echoing nationalistic sentiments. “Hungarian policy is neither Ukrainian-friendly nor Russian-friendly: It’s Hungarian-friendly,” he declared. “We’re giving the Ukrainians everything we can, perhaps even beyond our capacity,” the prime minister of Hungary said. “But we will not comply with any demands of theirs which would destroy our national community either in a biological sense, with our sons dying in someone else’s war, or with the ruination of Hungary’s economy.”

While Orbán’s opponents toiled to paint a stark reminder of Orbán’s robust ties with Putin, his tactics appeared to work as the exit polls promised Orbán’s right-wing populist Fidesz party, which has been in power for over 12 years, a landslide victory on Sunday.