Putin Ready to End War in Ukraine with Ceasefire Deal on Current Territorial Gains

New Delhi: President Vladimir Putin is ready and willing to end the war in Ukraine with a ceasefire agreement that locks in the current territorial gains made by Moscow, Reuters reported, quoting four anonymous Russian sources. Russia presently controls roughly 18 per cent of Ukraine's territory and reports indicate that it is making significant gains in its current offensive as Kyiv struggles to hold off military advances from its larger neighbour with a shortfall of required military equipment. 

Despite the recent advances, which have seen Russia recapture some territories that were previously liberated during Ukraine's failed counteroffensive last year, the aforementioned sources told Reuters that Putin wishes to use the current momentum to end the conflict, with the Kremlin strongman reportedly being of the view that these gains are sufficient to sell a victorious narrative to the Russian people. 

The war in Ukraine has already resulted in heavy losses for both sides. Earlier this year, NATO estimated that over 350,000 Russian soldiers have been injured or killed since the start of the conflict. 

While Russia does seem to be making up these losses by, among other things, carrying out massive recruitment drives and providing attractive incentives to those willing to support the war effort, the Reuters sources claim that Putin understands that any significant territorial advances would require another round of mobilisation. 

This, apparently, is something he is looking to avoid as the last round of mobilisation led to a significant drop in his popularity at home. 

As such, as per the aforementioned Russian sources, Putin is willing to allow the conflict to be frozen on the basis of the current frontlines, with these gains allowing Putin to not only claim victory in front of the Russian people but also retain a land bridge leading from Russian territory to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. 

The report by Reuters notes that such a development would leave Russia with a smaller chunk of territory that it had originally aimed for when the Kremlin had declared four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — as being a part of Russia. 

This supposed eagerness to reach a deal falling short of original gains is not just motivated by a desire to avoid another round of mobilisation. The sources quoted in the Reuters report also claimed that Putin does not want to extend the war as it creates the possibility of battle-hardened war veterans returning home and being dissatisfied with post-war job prospects, potentially creating societal tensions. 

Additionally, the report says that Russian leadership is also concerned over the growing possibility of open conflict and even nuclear war with NATO and the sources quoted by Reuters emphasised that Putin has no designs on NATO territory. 

The sources also claim that Putin has repeatedly expressed frustrations in discussions with his entourage over the apparent attempts by Western powers to stymie any ceasefire negotiations. Various Western powers, most prominently the US, have emphasised time and again that any ceasefire proposal must respect Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Ukrainian leader Volodmymr Zelenskyy himself has ruled out any peace negotiation with Russia on terms dictated by Moscow and has made the complete liberation of all captured territories, including Crimea, foundational to any negotiations. 

Zelenskyy presently is pushing for a peace conference in Switzerland where it aims to establish international consensus on how the war should end. Russia has not been invited and the Kremlin has said any talks of peace are meaningless without its presence. 

In light of such a stalemate, three of the four sources quoted by Reuters said that Putin plans to continue with the current offensive to incrementally ratchet up pressure on Ukraine to concede and call for peace talks. Putin reportedly believes that the West will not provide Ukraine with as much weaponry as it needs to conduct the war, sapping Kyiv's morale over time.