Russia's gamechanger? Putin developing 'Northern Sea Route' in Artic; Here's what it is

On Tuesday, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak ordered the Russian government to develop the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic in a systematic manner. According to a report from Xinhua, the order was made by Alexander Novak during a government meeting on the development of the Northern Sea route, which is slated to become a crucial shipping lane. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that considering the limited capacity of other sea routes, this Arctic sea route will play an increasingly important role in the Russia's economy. At the meeting, a representative of Russia's state-run Rosatom, the operator of nuclear-powered icebreakers, said that the cargo turnover of NSR is projected to touch 33.8 million tonnes this year. 

So, what exactly is the Northern Sea Route? The Northern Sea Route is the shortest sea route between the European part of Russia and the Russian Far East. Moscow intends to achieve primarily 4 tasks with the NSR - a.) Make it an energy superhighway which can be used for the export of hydrocarbons. b.) Develop new ports to aid in the growth of new points of economic growth in Russia's Arctic zone. c.) Open up Russia's main rivers to inland navigation, something Russia has always struggled with as most of Russia's rivers flow north towards the Arctic Ocean, which is inaccessible for major parts of the year. d.) Ensure smooth international transit in the shipping lane. 

The rationale behind NSR

The Northern Sea Route has the potential to become an alternative to the Suez canal by shipping cargo between Asia and Europe, especially in the summer months when the ice cover on the sea isn't a major hindrance, compared to ice cover during the winter months. In other words, there is a possibility that NSR might reorient sea traffic flows - a shortcut between Asia and Europe, granting Russia considerable geopolitical leverage and granting corporations who choose this route the possibility of higher profit margins as shorter route equals reduction in fuel consumption and voyage time. The major challenge for the development of the NSR is ice. 

Ships generally don't travel on ice-covered sea and even if they do (some do these days, thanks to ice-cutting ships), their speed comes down considerably, making the whole point of using the North Sea Route moot. The melting of ice, aka global warming is generally considered to be bad news but for Russia, it might have a silver lining as the melting of ice in the Arctic ocean makes the NSR more viable as an option to the Suez Canal route. Russia is investing in building more icebreakers to ensure more and more ships can travel using this sea lane. 

The Russian government intends to take the projected 33.8 million tons of cargo turnover this year to more than 72 million tons by the year of 2035. According to the Northern Sea Route Information Office, since 2017, traffic in the shipping lane has increased by more than 194.5 percent. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding trade with Russia has the risk of negatively impacting Russia's desire to develop the North Sea Route. 

Challenges Russia faces in turning NSR into a major shipping lane

To turn its policy goal into reality, for now, Russia is focussing on expanding and renovating ports in the route, using foreign investment, hoping it would also boost the local economy in those port towns. Building search and rescue fleets to provide aid and emergency help to vessels using the shipping lane. Investing in new nuclear-powered icebreakers and encouraging domestic shipbuilding. In the near future, it is unlikely that the NSR will become a major international shipping lane, despite its promise of shorter voyage and reduction in fuel consumption because the sea route, covered with ice, adds uncertainty and increases the risk. 

Another challenge for the NSR is that certain parts of this shipping lane have rather shallow depth, as little as 12.5 m, according to estimates by Lomonosov Northern Arctic Federal University. Ships these days have a draft that is more than 12 m. As a result of this, Bear Islands and Sannikov Strait are the most challenging areas of the shipping lane, due to their meagre depth. Low depth increases the chance of mishaps, which businesses want to avoid. “An efficient transport corridor allows cargo to be transported without “adventures”. The Northern Sea Route will not be such a trade route in the near foreseeable future," said head of the Information and Analytical Center of the Project Office for the Development of the Arctic, Igor Pavlovsky.