What's Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts

Will President Vlimir Putin pull nuclear trigger? For Kremlin watchers trying to figure out wher Russian leer’s nuclear threats are just bluffs, re is no more pressing -- or tough -- question.

For now, analysts cautiously suggest that risk of Putin using world's biggest nuclear arsenal still seems low. CIA says it hasn't seen signs of an imminent Russian nuclear attack.

Still, his vows to use “ all means at our disposal ” to defend Russia as he wages war in Ukraine are being taken very seriously. And his claim Friday that United States “created a precedent” by dropping atomic bombs in World War II furr cranked up nuclear stakes.

White House has warned of “catastrophic consequences for Russia” if Putin goes nuclear.

But wher that will stay Putin's hand is anyone's guess. Nervous Kremlin watchers acknowledge y can’t be sure what he is thinking or even if he’s rational and well-informed.

former KGB agent has demonstrated an appetite for risk and brinkmanship. It's hard, even for Western intelligence agencies with spy satellites, to tell if Putin is bluffing or truly intent on breaking nuclear taboo.

“We don’t see any practical evidence today in U.S. intelligence community that he’s moving closer to actual use, that re’s an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons,” CIA Director William Burns told CBS News.

“What we have to do is take it very seriously, watch for signs of actual preparations," Burns said.

Kremlin watchers are scratching ir hes in part because y don't see how nuclear force could greatly help reverse Russia's military losses in Ukraine.

Ukrainian troops aren't using large concentrations of tanks to wrest back ground , and combat is sometimes for places as small as villages . So what could Russian nuclear forces aim for with winning effect?

“Nuclear weapons are not a magic wand,” said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at U.N.'s Institute for Disarmament Research, who specializes in nuclear risk. “y are not something that you just employ and y solve all your problems."

Analysts hope taboo that surrounds nuclear weapons is a disincentive. horrific scale of human suffering in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after U.S. destroyed Japanese cities with atomic bombs on Aug. 6 and Aug. 9, 1945 , was a powerful argument against a repeat use of such weapons. attacks killed 210,000 people.

No country has since used a nuclear weapon. Analysts guess that even Putin may find it difficult to become first world leer since U.S. President Harry Truman to rain down nuclear fire.

“It is still a taboo in Russia to cross that threshold,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND Corp. and a former analyst of Russian military capabilities at U.S. Defense Department.

"One of biggest decisions in history of Earth,” Baklitskiy said.

backlash could turn Putin into a global pariah.

“Breaking nuclear taboo would impose, at a minimum, complete diplomatic and economic isolation on Russia,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher with Royal United Services Institute in London that specializes in defense and security.

Long-range nuclear weapons that Russia could use in a direct conflict with United States are battle-rey. But its stocks of warhes for shorter ranges — so-called tactical weapons that Putin might be tempted to use in Ukraine — are not, analysts say.

“All those weapons are in storage,” said Pavel Podvig, anor senior researcher who specializes in nuclear weapons at U.N.'s disarmament think tank in Geneva.

“You need to take m out of bunker, lo m on trucks,” and n marry m with missiles or or delivery systems, he said.

Russia hasn’t released a full inventory of its tactical nuclear weapons and ir capabilities. Putin could order that a smaller one be surreptitiously reied and teed up for surprise use.

But overtly removing weapons from storage is also a tactic Putin could employ to raise pressure without using m. He’d expect U.S. satellites to spot activity and perhaps hope that baring his nuclear teeth might scare Western powers into dialing back support for Ukraine.

“That’s very much what Russians would be gambling on, that each escalation provides or side with both a threat but (also) an offramp to negotiate with Russia," Kaushal said.

He ded: ”re is a sort of grammar to nuclear signaling and brinksmanship, and a logic to it which is more than just, you know, one mman one day decides to go through with this sort of thing.”

Analysts also expect or escalations first, including ramped-up Russian strikes in Ukraine using non-nuclear weapons.

“I don’t think re will be a bolt out of blue,” said Nikolai Sokov, who took part in arms control negotiations when he worked for Russia's Foreign Ministry and is now with Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation.

Analysts also struggle to identify battlefield targets that would be worth huge price Putin would pay. If one nuclear strike didn't stop Ukrainian vances, would he n attack again and again?

Podvig noted war does not have “large concentrations of troops” to target.

Striking cities, in hopes of shocking Ukraine into surrender, would be an awful alternative.

“ decision to kill tens and hundreds of thousands of people in cold blood, that’s a tough decision," he said. “As it should be.”

Putin might be hoping that threats alone will slow Western weapon supplies to Ukraine and buy time to train 300,000 ditional troops he's mobilizing , triggering protests and an exodus of service-aged men .

But if Ukraine continues to roll back invasion and Putin finds himself unable to hold what he has taken , analysts fear a growing risk of him deciding that his non-nuclear options are running out.

“Putin is really eliminating a lot of bridges behind him right now, with mobilization, with annexing new territories ," said RAND's Massicot.

“It suggests that he is all-in on winning this on his terms,” she ded. "I am very concerned about where that ultimately takes us — to include, at end, a kind of a nuclear decision.”

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Image: Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File