Why is Russia threatening Sweden and Finland to not join NATO?

Russia’s defiant leer Vlimir Putin has threatened “serious military consequences” against Finland and Sweden if y join NATO, one that "history will remember", cautioning or countries of world against making any attempts to interfere. warnings came in aftermath of Russia’s powerful forces launching fierce armed offensives, and bombardment of civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, for making a proposal of joining NATO alliance earlier as tense multifront negotiations faltered. 

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, though, categorically warned Finland and Sweden, two EU nations, against attempting to join NATO as prospects of joining alliance became a key reason for Moscow to w a war inside Ukraine. A statement from Russian Foreign Ministry voiced concerns never heard before, efforts by United States and Alliance to “drag” Finland and Sweden into NATO—a statement that prompted instant threats and retaliatory measures warnings from Russian regime.

“We’ve heard this before,” ted Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto during an interview with Finnish public brocaster YLE, assertively brushing off Russian leer’s threats against Finland. 

“Should Finland be NATO’s external border, it rar means that Russia would ‘most certainly’ take that into account in its own defense planning and strategies. I don’t see anything new as such in Russian side’s threatening statements,” Haavisto said, referring to  Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova’s speech.

latter meanwhile reminded that all members of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe h confirmed ir herence to this principle—bringing up a “neutrality” issue in a first since Russia Ukraine war unleashed. 

But what is it with 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) land border of Finland with Russia that is rattling Moscow to anunce “ grave countersteps” should two EU nations Finland and Sweden join NATO? issue has been a concern between three governments since Cold War. Russia’s Putin, on one or occasion in 2016, h dressed issue with a similar hardened tone, and that during his Finland visit inside ir own territory. 

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto at Putin's summer residence in town of Naantali. It was Putin’s first trip to a European Union country since British voted to leave bloc. Credit: AP

After Russia renewed its warnings, as war escalated with Ukraine, Sweden, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson appeared at a news conference alongside her military commander Micael Byden to dress Russia. “I want to be extremely clear,” she asserted, “It is Sweden that itself and independently decides on our security policy line.” Helsinki and Stockholm have also substantially ramped up ir bilateral defence cooperation in face of Russian aggression.

Russia recently dispatched written letters to both Finland and Sweden, demanding security guarantees, as it stated that two NATO allied nations must “comply with commitments t to strengn ir security at expense of security of ors.” 

Finland, Sweden’s neutrality buffer zone since Cold war 'risks shattering' 

Finnish-Soviet foreign arrangements date back to Cold War, as at time, Finland h accepted Soviet’s limitations on its ‘sovereignty’ in areas of foreign and security policy and h agreed to uphold neutrality of statehood. Finland and Sweden’s military n-alignment serve Soviet’s regional security interests.

In 2004, Finland tabled White Paper on Security and Defence policy that outlined Finnish NATO membership would only be an instrument to broker ‘cooperation’ between Russia and “West”. And President Putin, in post-Cold War era relied on risk-averse strain of Finland’s current policy-line. Both Finland and Sweden have, for over deces, hered to status of a neutral buffer zone concerning instability in strategic balance of security in rrn Europe and entire transatlantic region. two EU nations have contributed to model of ‘Ukrainian neutrality’. 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, center, participates in a media conference with Finland's Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, left, and Sweden's Foreign Minister Ann Linde, right, at NATO hequarters in Brussels. Credit: AP

Although, as that geopolitical landscape makes a parigm shift with Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Putin intends to achieve “Finlandization” of Kyiv, or rar apply “Finnish model,” in reference to EU nation’s policy of neutrality during Cold War. France’s President Emmanuel Macron ahe of diplomatic talks with Moscow suggested that Finlandization might be “one of models on table” to be negotiated with President Vlimir Putin. A de facto neutral status of Ukraine, on principles of Finnish model “could take away Putin’s perception of being “encircled by NATO” New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman suggested. 

NATO, however, asserts a differing stance on Ukraine being a neutrality buffer zone like that of Finland and Sweden’s Cold War policies.

“Everyone, including Putin, kws that Ukraine will t become a NATO member in foreseeable and unforeseeable future,” explains former NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

“It’s alrey a buffer country. It’s something you’ll never hear NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg say; his position won’t allow it.”

Belgium Air Force F-16 fighter jet participate in NATO's Baltic Air Policing Mission operate in Lithuanian air. Credit: AP

In post-Cold War era, Russian President Vlimir Putin fears that Finnish-Soviet relationship during Cold War may be shattering, and two EU nations that share border with Moscow may longer shut out Western military alliances or NATO cooperation, toppling Finnish model” that kept hierarchical relationship between Soviet, Sweden, and Finland relatively stable. 

In official Soviet-Finnish communiqués, this Soviet-Finnish-Swedish arrangement has been described as “positive example of fruitful nature of peaceful coexistence between countries belonging to different social systems”. Finnish neutrality was guaranteed by 1947 Paris Peace Treaties that mention EU nation could t be a member of NATO. But as Ukrainians desire integration with NATO and West, soon Finland and Sweden might spin table, posing a serious challenge to Russian security.