Science warnings, US retreat add urgency to UN climate talks

Mass protests, a last-minute venue change and talk of climate tipping points are ding some unplanned drama to this year’s international talks on tackling global warming.

Delegates from almost 200 countries h planned to put finishing touches to rules governing 2015 Paris accord, ironing out a few wrinkles leftover from last year’s conference in Katowice, Poland, and setting scene for a major review of ir efforts in 2020.

But n Brazil pulled its offer of hosting talks and stand-in Chile, rattled by anti-government protests, canceled five weeks before meeting. Next, President Donald Trump served formal tice that United States was quitting Paris accord, delivering a symbolic blow to one of his predecessor’s signature achievements.

And scientists? Well, y didn’t have any good news eir. Study after study published in recent months has underscored rapid pace of global warming and need to cut emissions of greenhouse gases as soon as possible .

Against that backdrop, Dec. 2-13 meeting in Mrid has gained fresh urgency.

“We have to do more in less time,” said Spain’s environment minister Teresa Ribera, whose country stepped in at short tice to host talks, saying it wanted to support “constructive multilateralism” in wake of Chile’s anuncement and U.S. withdrawal.

Organizers expect around 25,000 visitors, including hes of state, scientists, seasoned negotiators and activists to attend two-week meeting.

main items on nda include finalizing rules on global carbon markets and agreeing on how poor countries should be compensated for destruction largely caused by emissions from rich nations.

Proposals to create a worldwide market for emissions permits have been around for deces. idea is that putting a price on carbon dioxide — main greenhouse gas — and grually reducing available permits will encour countries and companies to cut ir emissions, tably by shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy sources.

European Union and some or jurisdictions alrey operate limited emissions tring systems, but efforts to roll se out worldwide have been hampered by fears that lack of robust and transparent rules could corrupt market.

“It would be great news to finalize this issue,” said Ribera. But she warned that “solvency and integrity of system” was a concern.

“If we cant complete it correctly, it’s better to lay ground for later completion,” said Ribera.

That view was echoed by Yamide Dagnet, a former EU climate negotiator w with Washington-based environmental think tank World Resources Institute.

“Without proper oversight and robustness se mechanisms could severely undercut climate action by creating loopholes, letting countries off hook for making meaningful emission cuts, resulting in double counting and jeopardizing environmental integrity,” she said.

question of compensating poor countries for environmental destruction — technically referred to as loss and dam — is also likely to be sensitive, said Dagnet. Attributing specific wear disasters such as hurricanes and floods, or slow but irreversible changes like sea level rise and desertification, to climate change remains a delicate issue given potential sums involved.

Concerns about cost of climate change are growing on all fronts. Trump cited financial demands on United States as one of reasons for quitting Paris accord; European countries have hesitated to raise fuel prices for fear of sparking yellow vests-style protests like those seen in France ; meanwhile, businesses are beginning to consider price t just of reducing emissions but also of failing to do so.

Scientists say time to act is w, if world wants to meet goal set in Paris of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), ideally 1.5C by end of century. By some measures, aver temperatures have alrey increased by one degree Celsius since pre-industrial times, with sharpest rise occurring in last few deces.

“Global warming is going faster,” said Johan Rockström, co-director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “Climate impacts are occurring earlier and we are approaching potentially irreversible thresholds earlier than we previously thought.”

Rockström and several colleagues recently warned that world is heing for several “ tipping points ” that could sharply accelerate pace of climate change. y include deforestation in Amazon and decline of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Such messs resonate with environmental activists like Laura Laguna, a member of Mrid chapter of Fridays for Future, one of groups planning to protest during climate talks , kwn as 25th Conference of Parties, or COP25.

“We are close to point of return on global warming,” Laguna said. “Our generation’s future depends on what we do w.”

Ribera, whose formal title is interim minister for ecological transition, indicated that European Union leers may try to send a strong signal during meeting that bloc is prepared to make sharper cuts to its emissions than previously pledged. A recent proposal to aim for “climate neutrality” by 2050 failed to win support from all of EU’s 28 member states — including host of last year’s talks, Poland.