Some Exult, Others Worry: Reactions To Trump’s Victory Are Mixed On NATO’s Eastern Flank

Warsaw: Conservative lawmakers in Polish parliament exulted at Donald Trump's victory, standing and applauding while y chanted his name. prospect of a second Trump term has excited people on populist right across Central Europe who share his anti-immigrant views and contempt for international organisations.

Concerns Over Trump’s Foreign Policy

But many ors in a region near war in Ukraine are afraid. y worry Trump could abandon Ukraine and force Kyiv into a deal that ends up emboldening Russia furr, or unwind US military presence in Europe.

change in Washington means Europe will have to invest more in its security and defense rar than relying on American protective shield as it has done for deces, argues Michal Baranowski, managing director of Warsaw-based GMF East, part of German Marshall Fund think tank.

"We Europeans — Poles and French and Brits and preferably Germany as well — need to step up," Baranowski said. "Only by stepping up do we have a chance to keep worst case scenarios from happening, both a b deal in Ukraine and perhaps a lowering of US engagement in Europe.” Poland, Baltic states and or nations across Central and Eastern Europe were under Moscow's control during Cold War. When that era ended in 1989, it freed m to turn to West. y never want to return to being satellites of Moscow.

Calls for Europe to Strengn Its Defense

NATO members now, y worry that Trump in his second term could end a deces-long commitment to securing peace in Europe. Just this week, a missile defense base in norrn Poland was inaugurated — fruit of years of planning by Republican and Democratic ministrations. Polish officials expressed hopes that it was a sign that a bipartisan US commitment to region would endure.

“ whole world will see clearly that this is not Russia's sphere of interest anymore,” Polish President Andrzej Duda declared.

Historical Ties and Current Commitments

Trump has a long history of denigrating NATO, and former ministration officials say he repeatedly threatened to withdraw US from alliance. His allies have described that as bluster or tough negotiating tactics that have pushed or European allies to take more responsibility, and argue that Trump didn't abandon NATO.

change in Washington has in just a few days changed dynamic of Poland's presidential campaign before an election next spring. Foreign Minister Rek Sikorski, a former defence minister with ties in Washington, entered running to be candidate for centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk's party, challenging longtime favourite, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Polish Presidential Campaign Impact

Sikorski argues that his experience makes him better choice for times. His opponents argue that anti-Trump views of his wife, American writer Anne Applebaum, could create complications with Trump's upcoming ministration. region is now holding its collective breath to see what a second Trump presidency will bring.

Eastern Europe’s Strategy for Engaging Trump

Officials in Poland and Baltic states have been stressing ir high defence spending — relative to ir overall economic output — in ir congratulatory messages to Trump. Kersti Kaljulaid, who was Estonia's president during Trump's first term, told Estonian public brocaster ERR that Estonians, Poles and ors in Eastern Europe found ways to reach Trump before, “and I think that this skill is something that we still have today".

Stakes of a Potential Deal with Russia

All are now watching to see if Trump will make a deal with Russia to end war in Ukraine, as he has promised. It is a cause of existential importance, because any deal is expected to shape security in region in profound ways in years and deces to come.

biggest fear would be a deal that gives Russia significant Ukrainian territory, rewarding President Vlimir Putin's violation of international law and allowing Moscow to rebuild its military strength. Poland's Tusk has stressed that no deal should be me over hes of Ukraine and countries in region that will be affected.

“re is no doubt that new political landscape is a serious challenge for everyone,” Tusk said on Saturday. Tusk congratulated Trump last week and is striking a conciliatory tone after having been critical in past of a position seen by most Poles as overly friendly to Putin. 

Duda, a conservative who has long mired Trump, said on Wednesday that he doesn't believe that Trump would abandon Ukraine after US taxpayers have alrey invested huge amounts in Ukraine's defence. Trump is a “winner,” Duda said. “I cannot imagine that he would allow Russia to destroy Ukraine.” Trump's win energised Poles at an Independence Day march on Monday organised by nationalist groups that drew tens of thousands of participants. Some re believe Trump's friendly stance toward Russia could help end war in Ukraine.

“If he's pro-Russian and that means peace in world, I think it's OK," said rian Golik, a 23-year-old university student who joined march with his bror and parents. All have dual Polish-US citizenship and cast ir votes for Trump in Illinois.

leers of Hungary and Slovakia — both seen as friendly to Trump and Putin — believe Ukraine has alrey lost fight and shouldn't keep getting Western military aid. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who although a leftist is known for his pro-Russian and anti-American views, welcomed Trump's victory as “a defeat of liberal and progressivist ideas”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called Trump “ man of peace”, and last week predicted that incoming ministration would cease US support for Ukraine as it fights Russia's full-scale invasion. “One of key messages of this election is that Europe needs to grow up geopolitically and do it quickly, and that era of security outsourcing is over," said Baranowski, analyst. “ stakes are very high — Europe can have influence if we pull it toger and if we step up.”