'Strict, short' COVID-19 lockdowns are less damaging for global economy: Study

Imposing nationwide lockdowns has been one of the main approaches taken by governments across the world to fight the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. However, the shutting down of businesses has taken a severe toll on the world economy. A new comprehensive, peer-reviewed study has revealed that gradual easing of strict lockdowns that last for a couple of months is better for the global supply chain in the hindsight. 

The study published in Nature Human Behaviour led by the University College London and Tsinghua University is reportedly the first study on the effects of lockdowns on the global supply chain that have impacted at least 140 countries including the nations that are not directly affected by the COVID-19 disease. 

The researchers have derived that “stricter nad shorter” lockdowns minimise the overall losses caused to the supply chains and then a “go-slow” approach to lift the restrictions might control the damages if further lockdowns are prevented. However, the study has also noted that “regardless of the strategy”, the complication of the global supply chains will “magnify” the losses which are beyond the direct effects of COVID-19 pandemic. 

The reason why stringent, shorter lockdowns are economically preferable rather than moderate, longer ones is because businesses can absorb the impact of brief shutting down as they can depend on the resources. Moreover, completely closing down for a less period of time lessens the abruptness caused to global as well as regional supply chains. 

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'Ripple effects'

The countries which are not directly affected by the novel coronavirus would still bear a loss of 20 per cent decline in their GDP owing to the fall in the consumer demand mong other bottlenecks in supply chains. The lead author Professor Dabo Guan (UCL Bartlett School of Construction & Project Management and Tsinghua University) has said that the recent study explores the “ripple effects” of a pandemic but has also admitted that predicting the true cost of the global health crisis is not possible at this time.

Guan said, "Our study shows the ripple effects caused by lockdowns along global supply chains, with countries not directly affected by COVID-19 still experiencing heavy economic losses.

"While predicting the true cost of lockdowns is not possible at this stage, our research suggests that shorter, stricter lockdowns minimise the impact on supply chains, while gradually easing restrictions over the course of a year may also be less disruptive than a swift lifting of restrictions followed by another lockdown," he added.

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