Succession of killed Al-Qaeda leader Al-Zawahiri remains in flux: US intelligence official

The succession of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was allegedly killed in a US raid in Kabul last year, remains unclear, a US intelligence official said on Tuesday, January 10. 

“The question for Al Qaeda, that it has not answered for itself, is who follows (Zawahiri)," Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center Christine Abizaid said in an event organised by the Washington Institute when asked about Al Qaeda’s “center of gravity" after Zawahiri’s death.

Zawahiri, a crucial member of the 9/11 attacks conspiracy, was said to have resided in Pakistan up until the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, most likely with the protection of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), according to the European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS).

Zawahiri’s killing was the biggest blow to the militant group since its founder, Osama bin Laden, was killed in 2011.

Experts believe that Saif al-Adel, a high-ranking member of Al-Qaeda who is a secretive and low-key former Egyptian special forces officer, is the top contender. The United States is offering a reward of up to $10 million, for information that results in his arrest.

US’ 'unpredictable' environment

Abizaid further talked about the threat environment in the United States, calling it "unpredictable" and stressed the need for citizens to remain alert about overseas-based extremist organisations like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS).

“The online environment is where most of the radicalisation is occurring," she said.

Christine Abizaid's comments support a recent assessment by the Department of Homeland Security, which stated that lone criminals and groups driven by a variety of ideologies will continue to pose a threat in the US in the coming months. 

The Al Qaeda terrorist group released a 35-minute video of its assassinated leader, Al-Zawahiri, earlier in December 2022. The gang asserted that the recording was narrated by him.

Pakistan’s role 

Even though neither the US nor Pakistan have publicly acknowledged Pakistan's potential role in Zawahiri's targeting, the possibility of such involvement has come to light as a sensitive subject.

“For many years it was believed that Zawahiri was hiding in the border area of Pakistan and it remains unclear why he returned to Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, it is believed that Zawahiri’s family returned to the safe house in Kabul,” EFSAS quoting a report by the New York Times said. 

The Haqqani network allegedly transported Zawahiri to Kabul over the Chaman border sometime after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, according to reports citing high intelligence sources. Zawahiri was reportedly being protected in Karachi at the time.

“Convinced that Pakistan had a role in Zawahiri’s killing,” a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Michael Rubin said.