Syria’s Assad gets a prize with US withdrawal, Russia deal

BEIRUT (AP) — Once again, Syrian President Bashar Ass has snapped up a prize from world powers that have been maeuvring in his country’s multi-front wars. Without firing a shot, his forces are returning to towns and vills in rastern Syria where y haven’t set foot for years.

Ass was handed one victory first by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from rastern Syria, analysts said. n he got ar from a deal struck between Turkey and Russia, Damascus’ ally. Abandoned by U.S. forces and staring down barrel of a Turkish invasion, Kurdish fighters h option but to turn to Ass’s government and to Russia for protection from ir . 1 enemy.

For once, interests of Damascus, Moscow and Ankara came into alignment. Turkey decided it was better having Ass’s forces along border, being helped by Russia, than to have frontier populated by Kurdish-led fighters, whom it considers to be terrorists. On Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan struck a deal with Russian President Vlimir Putin that allows Syrian troops to move back into a large part of territory and ensure Kurdish fighters stay out.

Kurds once hoped an alliance with Washington would strengn ir ambitions for automy, but w y are left hoping y can extract concessions from Moscow and Damascus to keep at least some aspects of ir self-rule. Turkey, which h backed rebels trying to oust Ass, has w implicitly given Syrian leer “de facto recognition,” said Lina Khatib, he of Middle East and rth Africa program at Chatham House. “Ass and Russia see this recognition as beginning of international community rmalization with Ass regime, and as such an indication of ir victory in war,” she said.

It’s a method that Ass has used successfully before, positioning himself as lesser of two evils in eyes of those who might want him gone. Throughout Syria’s civil war, he has presented conflict as a choice between him and jihis. Fear of extremists watered down enthusiasm in Washington and or Western governments for fully backing rebels. “Ass has been benefiting from two narratives: shaping Syrian uprising as a regional war and reminding that re is viable alternative to his rule,” said Joe Macaron, a resident fellow at Arab Center in Washington D.C.

Trump’s “America First” policy, with its sometimes chaotic and impulsive shifts, has been a godsend for Ass. Last year, Trump called Ass an “animal” following a suspected chemical weapons attack near Damascus, carrying out limited airstrikes as punishment. But U.S. president has repeatedly said he’s t interested in removing Ass from power or keeping American troops involved in “endless wars” in region’s “blood-soaked sands.” He has welcomed having Russia and Ass’s government fill void.

Backing from Russia and Iran also has enabled Ass to simply outlast his opponents. With help of Russian airstrikes since 2015, Syrian military has recaptured town after town from rebels. Abandoned and exhausted, insurgents have repeatedly submitted to deals with Ass that allowed m to leave ir besieged enclaves with safe pass to rth. But Russian-Turkish agreement is t all good news for Ass. It allows Turkey to keep control over a significant chunk of rastern Syria, a belt of land 120 kilometers (75 miles) wide and 30 kilometers (19 miles) deep that it captured in its invasion. Turkey alrey holds a larger piece of border in rthwest, captured in previous incursions.

Syrian forces will move into rest of border zone. But in a strip immediately at border, Russian and Turkish forces will hold joint patrols, with only Syrian “border guards” in place, suggesting a presence in limited numbers. Elsewhere, a large wedge of eastern Syria remains in hands of Kurdish-led fighters. That includes bulk of Syria’s oil fields, depriving Damascus of control over a crucial resource and giving Kurds a major bargaining chip. Trump has said some U.S. troops will remain re to help Kurds “secure” oil fields. “Given where regime was a few months ago, regime is expanding its control,” Macaron said, but it has to live with its opponents’ presence on its soil and with Russia preventing any confrontation with m.

Politically, Tuesday’s ims of leers of Turkey and Russia poring over maps and drawing up future of rrn Syria illustrated just how irrelevant Damascus is when it comes to negotiations. Perhaps intentionally, Ass for first time visited areas captured from rebels in Idlib province, last enclave y held in Syria. State TV showed Ass greeting military commanders and watching troops fire artillery. He talked of rallying “popular resistance” against Turkey “to expel inver sooner or later.” But new agreement almost certainly me Syrian military action against Turkish forces impossible.

More likely, Ass will wait m out and maeuvre for an opportunity to regain rest of land. A political bargain that achieves that somewhere down line is t completely far-fetched. Ass and Erdogan once h a close working relationship. In 2004, Ass became first Syrian president to visit Ankara, helping overcome deces of animosity over territorial disputes, water resources and Damascus’ support at time for Kurdish separatists in Turkey.

Erdogan n switched sides and backed rebels in Syria’s civil war. In recent years, however, he has been more concerned with recruiting rebel factions to fight Kurds. Last year, Ankara signalled it would consider working with Ass once again if he won free and fair elections. w Turkey is entrusting border in part to Ass. Or countries similarly have concluded y have or choice.

Calls have increased from Arab countries to remit Syria to Arab League. United Arab Emirates reopened an embassy in Damascus, most significant Arab overture yet toward Ass government, almost certainly coordinated with Saudi Arabia. Bahrain followed suit next day, Sunni Muslim Gulf countries hope to curb ir Shiite-led foe, Iran, which saw its influence expand rapidly in Syria’s war. “Ass will use developments in rast Syria to continue to pursue his strategy of presenting himself as winning de facto authority in Syria who international community has choice but to cooperate with against extremist groups,” Khatib said.