Trump 2.0: What a Second Term Could Mean for India-US Relations

US Elections 2024 : As former President Donald Trump emerges as a strong contender for a second term in White House, future of India-US relations is once again under microscope. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump enjoyed a robust personal rapport during Trump's first presidency, with high-profile events such as "Howdy, Modi!" and "Namaste Trump" showcasing ir camaraderie. 

Richard McCormick, US lawmaker and GOP leader has stated that both leaders have potential to grow global ecomy toger, with both New Delhi and Washington needing each or more than ever. 

But with Trump's potential return, questions arise about direction his foreign policy will take, particularly in its impact on India.

During his first term, Trump’s foreign policy was defined by an "America First" approach, prioritizing US interests and frequently challenging multilateral agreements. A second Trump administration is likely to continue in this vein, with significant implications for India across key areas such as trade, immigration, military cooperation, and diplomacy.

Focus on India-US trade ties 

One of most significant areas where Trump’s second term could affect India is trade. Trump's protectionist stance, particularly on tariffs, was a hallmark of his first presidency. In recent months, he has reiterated his commitment to imposing tariffs on countries like China and India, calling out India's high tariff rates on US products. During a rally, Trump claimed, “India is a very big charger” when it comes to tariffs, signaling that reciprocal trade policies might be on horizon.

For India, which relies heavily on exports to US, such policies could have a significant impact on key sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. possibility of higher tariffs could strain India’s trade relationship with US. However, re could be an upside for India as Trump continues to push for supply chain decoupling from China. This could create opportunities for India to position itself as a global manufacturing hub, attracting US businesses seeking alternatives to Chinese production.

Immigration: What’s impact on Indian workforce? 

Trump’s tough stance on immigration, particularly his targeting of H-1B visa program, poses ar challenge for India. In his first term, Trump introduced stricter measures to curb immigration, including increased w requirements for foreign workers. This policy disproportionately affected Indian professionals, especially in IT sector. If reintroduced, such measures could impact Indian tech workers' ability to work in US, creating friction for Indian techlogy firms that rely on skilled Indian talent.

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently suggested that under a second Trump administration, re would likely be “difficult negotiations over trade and immigration,” but he also ted Trump’s generally positive relationship with India and Modi. outcome of se negotiations could shape flow of talent and businesses between two countries.

Everything to kw about military ties and defense cooperation 

One of cornerstones of India-US relations in recent years has been defense cooperation. Trump’s first term saw significant strides in this area, with landmark agreements like General Electric-Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (GE-HAL) deal to manufacture jet engines and joint military exercises aimed at countering China’s growing influence in Indo-Pacific region.

In a second term, Trump is likely to maintain a strong military partnership with India, particularly given shared interests in countering China’s geopolitical ambitions. 

Quad alliance, which includes US, India, Japan, and Australia, was also strengned during Trump’s presidency, and a renewed Trump administration could see furr military cooperation, arms sales, and techlogy transfers. Trump's "Peace through Strength" doctrine could align with India’s security goals, especially in its efforts to counter terrorism from Pakistan .

Kwing diplomatic landscape: Challenges & opportunities 

While Trump's “America First” foreign policy approach may lead to a more isolationist US, it also presents an opportunity for India to assert itself on global st. Trump’s skepticism of multilateralism could see him continue to pivot away from international agreements, creating room for India to fill gap in areas such as climate change and regional security.

India, as a major strategic partner of US, could benefit from this shifting dynamic. However, it will need to navigate complexities of a US foreign policy that prioritizes national interest and ecomic self-sufficiency.