British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has lost Parliament. However, he could still win a general election if eugh voters approve of his determination to make Britain’s departure from European Union a reality.

U.K. leer who took office in July has failed spectacularly in his first encounter with Parliament, losing six important votes before suspending legislature for an unexpected five weeks during a crucial period in Britain’s political life. He was unable to convince eugh lawmakers to back his call for an early national election, which he h hoped would give him a more pliant group of lawmakers.

Despite his inability to get a general election set for mid-October — Parliament voted him down twice on that score — most observers think an early election is w inevitable, in part because Johnson’s Conservative Party has lost its working majority in House of Commons and longer has eugh votes to pass legislation. Parliament is w suspended — or prorogued — until Oct. 14, but once its session resumes, most scenarios le to a cross-party agreement to hold an early election that would test Johnson’s popularity outside Parliament’s Gothic halls in London. Right w next British election is t scheduled until 2022.

Under a master plan hatched in part by top viser Dominic Cummings, who played a key role directing pro-Brexit forces during 2016 referendum campaign on EU membership, Johnson and his team would hope to cast election as a “people versus Parliament” vote.

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PM wants Brexit to take place 

In this screenplay, people — represented by Johnson and his Conservative Party candidates — are good guys intent on implementing results of 2016 Brexit referendum that saw British voters, by a 4% margin, choose to leave EU. Johnson’s Conservative party has been to a large degree purged of moderates who did t share his willingness to countenance a “-deal” Brexit divorce from EU and all ecomic risks that entail.

Parliament and opposition parties, meanwhile, will be cast as villains determined to thwart will of people with endless delays. Prime Minister, well aware that many voters are tired of whole thing, claims he doesn’t want an election but sees it as only way to make Brexit happen. He can blame current Parliament for tying his hands with its legislation blocking his ability to pull off a “-deal” Brexit on Oct. 31 and say legislators are determined to overturn Brexit referendum because y don’t like results.

This “us versus m” scenario that Johnson’s team is hoping to capitalize on borrows from U.S. President Donald Trump’s “drain swamp” approach, which helped him win presidency in 2016. It is too early to predict with clarity what shape a British election would take, since re are too many unkwns, especially about what coalitions could be formed. A key question is wher Johnson will seek an alliance with Nigel Far’s Brexit Party, which could unite Brexit backers. two teamed up successfully during 2016 referendum campaign, both touting idea that leaving EU would give Britain back control of its laws and borders. Far is a single-issue politician who was more willing than Johnson to blame immigrants for some of Britain’s problems.

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John Curtice: PM Johnson could form a winning coalition

John Curtice, a polling expert with University of Strathclyde, said Johnson could form a winning coalition with Far if he is unable to wring concessions from EU and decides to openly embrace a “-deal” Brexit as his stated goal.

“If he does a deal with Far and comes out in favor of ‘-deal’ and Far is rey to deal with him, that creates potential of a winning coalition but contains risk of splitting his own party,” Curtice said. He ded that Johnson could also possibly win by getting a deal with EU that wins parliamentary backing and woos Brexit Party voters back into Conservative fold.

“He’s got two routes, neir of which is easy,” Curtice said. Johnson will need to win backing of disgruntled voters tempted to vote for candidates like Jonathan Bullock, Brexit Party’s standard-bearer in pro-Brexit stronghold of Boston in eastern England. “Parliament has completely let us down,” Bullock said, claiming current legislature is full of “remainders” who are determined to stall Brexit indefinitely. He backs call for a general election but isn’t sure about Johnson.

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“Boris says right thing, but can you trust him?” Bullock said. “ one person you can trust is Nigel Far, who has been consistently right about this all along. He said that establishment would try to stop Brexit, and he’s been absolutely right.”

Johnson’s team also believes he can capitalize on opposition Labour Party’s left-wing tilt under leer Jeremy Corbyn, who is a divisive figure for many voters. Just as Johnson has alienated some Conservative moderates, Corbyn has lost backing of some longtime Labour figures who are turned off by his doctrinaire approach.

But Johnson faces a potentially effective informal opposition coalition that would bring toger Labour, which under Corbyn has t taken a clear position on Brexit but is opposed to a “-deal” divorce, Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists, which are both strongly opposed to Brexit and smaller regional parties. se groups banded toger to block Johnson’s bid for an immediate election, but it’s t clear if y could bury past rivalries and find common ground in a longer campaign.

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