COVID-19: New projection predicts 201,129 deaths by beginning of October in US

As per new projection, the US might have 201,129 deaths due to COVID-19 by the beginning of October due to removal of restrictions for the containment of the disease, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington said in a statement on June 15. This projection comes when more than 40 states in the US announced the formal “re-opening plans” as President Donald Trump lifted restrictions. Despite 2,182,950 cases of COVID-19, Trump pivoted from the pandemic to restore pre-coronavirus normalcy — “with or without” a vaccine, as he said.  

It is increasingly clear that COVID-19’s toll will extend beyond the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, and current epidemics could easily worsen as the Southern Hemisphere nears its winter season, the IHME said on its website.

The institute estimated over 18,675 deaths in Florida, saying, it would be hardest-hit after more than 2,000 new coronavirus cases were recorded in the state over the weekend. On June 12, Florida hit its highest single-day tally, further, on June 15, the state health department recorded an additional 1,758 cases, as per the state government’s COVID-19 data.  

While the deaths in California surged by 72 percent from 8,812 to 15,155, and Arizona's fatalities spiked by 56 percent from 4,762 to 7,415, Florida's projected figures increased 186 percent from previously estimated 6,559 on June 10, earlier, as per the report. Head of Harvard's Global Health Institute, Ashish Jha, was quoted saying that the fatalities from COVID-19 respiratory disease would nearly double in the US by the fall if immediate measures to curb the spread were not enacted. 

Even if the US did not have increasing cases, even if things were flat, it’s reasonable to expect that the country was going to hit 200,000 deaths sometime during the month of September, Jha was quoted as saying in a conversation with a leading US broadcaster.  

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"Unstoppable surge" in coronavirus cases

Further, speaking about the surge in COVID-19 around the Memorial Day, Jha was quoted by US media as saying, that the unstoppable surge in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations across several states in the US were a "real concern." Around Memorial Day, he said, the US started to open. While some states were in good shape to resume the economy then, other states had a lot of cases and they opened rapidly. Further, he was quoted saying, the US was witnessing cluster outbreaks and a mix of many cases in some states. Therefore, drastic measures to limit the spread of the virus was needed.  

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(Image Credit: AP)