UK's COVID 'Plan B' may cost country's economy up to £18 billion: Report

United Kingdom's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been warned that switching to Britain's tougher coronavirus 'Plan B' for five months may cost the country's economy up to £18 billion, reported POLITICO citing government documents. The documents reveal top-level thinking as the Prime Minister faces mounting pressure from public health officials to act to address rising case rates months after the majority of England's COVID restrictions were relaxed. They confirm that ministers have seriously considered switching to Plan B, with the 'assumption' that the alternative plan, which includes mandatory mask-wearing, COVID certification, and work-from-home guidelines, would have to be in place for the entire winter till the end of March 2022. 

Alternative plan may create significant economic burden

Until next March, Johnson directed staff to analyse the impact of executing the alternative strategy. However, the UK Treasury and the Cabinet Office's COVID Taskforce estimate that such a move would have an uncertain impact on limiting the virus's spread while causing a significant economic burden. The presumptions outlined 'do not reflect' policy, according to a government official as reported by POLITICO. The Treasury's biggest concern is that businesses will be affected severely with millions of people switching back to working from home, mainly in inner-city areas and towns. It also claimed that working from home is only expected to have a marginally positive influence on transmission reduction. 

'COVID certification mechanism to lower transmission by 40-45%'

Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office's COVID-19 Taskforce issued an analysis on establishing COVID status certification for mass events during the projected five-month Plan B period. It found that a COVID certification mechanism would lower transmission by 40-45% during these events. However, given only 2-13% of overall community transmission occurs at venues covered by the plan, it warns that reduced community transmission will have only a 'moderate impact'. Certification, according to the analysis, would cut overall community transmission by 1-5%, reported the outlet. The assessment also says that vaccine passports would have a 'high impact' on the economy and might have 'wider impacts,' compounding Britain's supply chain crisis. 

The Cabinet Office document concludes that certification is likely to have a good influence in lowering the transmission, while it is not possible to estimate exactly by how much. The Treasury and Cabinet Office documents also reveal that data on the government's Plan B health effects are lacking and that officials are unable to adequately advise ministers on how effective the alternative plan would be in containing the spread of the virus. The documents, on the other hand, issue a more stern warning about the economic consequences, with dire projections from the Treasury about the damage to firms and the economy as a whole, according to POLITICO. 

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