UN: Unprecedented Taliban violence in 2020 carries into 2021

Taliban insurgents show no sign of reducing level of violence in Afghanistan to facilitate peace negotiations with government, and appear to be trying to strengn ir military position as leverage, with “unprecedented violence" of 2020 carrying into 2021, U.N. experts said in a new report circulated Friday.

panel of experts said Taliban are reported to be responsible for great majority of assassinations that have become a feature of violence in Afghanistan, targeting government officials, women, human rights defenders and journalists among ors. se attacks “appear to be undertaken with objective of weakening capacity of government and intimidating civil society,”it said.

In 22-page report to U.N. Security Council, panel said withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces by Sept. 11, anniversary of 2001 terrorist attacks on United States, “will challenge Afghan forces by limiting aerial operations with fewer drones and rar and surveillance capabilities, less logistical support and artillery, as well as a disruption in training.”

Taliban were ousted from power in Afghanistan in 2001 by a U.S.-led coalition for harboring Osama bin Len, architect of Sept. 11 attacks.

A peace deal that Washington brokered with Taliban and signed in February 2020 was aimed at bringing American troops home and ending more than four deces of relentless wars following 1979 Afghan invasion by forces from former Soviet Union.

Negotiations between Taliban and Afghan representatives began last September in Doha, Qatar and continued earlier this year. But Taliban announced on April 13 -- a day before President Joe Biden’s announcement that all U.S. troops would leave by Sept. 11 -- that it would not take part in any conference intended to decide future of Afghanistan until all foreign troops were gone.

U.N. experts, who monitor sanctions against Taliban, predicted more violence in run-up to ir departure.

“Taliban rhetoric and reports of active Taliban preparations for spring fighting season indicate group is likely to increase military operations for 2021, wher or not a spring offensive is announced,” y said.

experts also questioned how Afghan forces would fare without coalition support.

“Afghan forces have successfully reversed many Taliban gains with assistance of international coalition close air support, but have done so with heavy casualty rates,” y said. “It remains to be seen how Afghan forces will perform without it.”

panel of experts painted a grim picture of violence in Afghanistan, which h been expected to decrease in 2020 but inste soared to highest level ever recorded by United Nations in country — more than 25,000 incidents, a 10% increase over 2019.

Violence surged as Doha talks began, experts said, and incident rates in usually calmer winter were higher than those in spring or summer of 2020.

“Unprecedented violence over winter carried into 2021, with 7,177 security incidents recorded countrywide between Jan. 1 and March 31, representing a 61 percent increase over same period in 2020,” y said.

panel said number of Taliban fighters remains robust, with estimates ranging from about 58,000 to 100,000.

panel said many sources its members spoke to — which include governments — believe Taliban used 2020 fighting season “to furr strengn strangleholds around several provincial capitals, seeking to shape future military operations when levels of departing foreign troops are no longer able to respond.”

While no one claimed responsibility for most assassinations, experts said it is widely believed that approximately 85 percent of m were carried out by Taliban. U.N. recorded an increase in reported assassinations from 780 in 2019 to 996 in 2020, report said.

As part of U.S.-Taliban deal, Taliban was supposed to reduce violence and part ways with al-Qaida, extremist group that Taliban sheltered prior to 9/11 attacks.

But experts said ties between Taliban and al-Qaida “remain close, based on ideological alignment, relationships forged through common struggle and intermarriage.”

“ Taliban has begun to tighten its control over al-Qaida by garing information on foreign terrorist fighters and registering and restricting m,” panel said. “However, it has not me any concessions in this regard that it could not easily and quickly reverse, and it is impossible to assess with confidence that Taliban will live up to its commitment to suppress any future international threat emanating from al-Qaida in Afghanistan.”

Al-Qaida is reported to number from several dozen to 500 people, mainly nationals from north Africa and Middle East, it said.

experts said al-Qaida and or militants continue to celebrate developments in Afghanistan “as a victory for Taliban’s cause and thus for global ricalism.”

According to U.N. member states, al-Qaida is present in at least 15 provinces primarily in east, south and souast and a significant part of its leership remains based in border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, panel said. Its leer, Ayman al-Zawahri, “is believed to be located somewhere in border region,” it said.