US Election Results: What Would a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris Victory Mean for India

New Delhi: As US election for presidency draws to a close, outcome will have important effects t just for America, but also for ecomies around world, especially India. clear differences in policies between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are likely to impact several sectors in India.

According to broker firm PL Capital, a Trump administration may favor global geopolitics, crude oil prices, defense techlogy, and pharmaceuticals. Current market predictions indicate a 56.5% chance of a Trump victory compared to a 43.5% probability for Harris, although opinion polls suggest a closely contested race.

official results of US election are set to be released on vember 6 at 8:45 AM IST, with initial results expected shortly after polls close at 6 PM Eastern Time (22:00 GMT).

“ upcoming US presidential election could have critical implications for India against backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, changes in leadership in Bangladesh , and a fragile situation in Souast Asia,” PL Capital stated in its ‘India Strategy’ report. US stance is crucial as India navigates tensions in South Asia and mans strategic shifts in Indo-Pacific.

Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: Potential Policies Impacting India

1. Trade Policy

• Kamala Harris: Advocates for multilateral trade agreements and regional collaborations, such as Indo-Pacific Ecomic Framework. She is likely to renew Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which had previously benefited Indian exports.
• Donald Trump: Favors protectionism, focusing on renegotiating trade deals and imposing heavy tariffs. termination of GSP in 2019 adversely affected $6.3 billion worth of Indian exports.

Implications:

• Harris's policies are expected to stabilize trade with India, while Trump’s approach may disrupt global trade but provide opportunities for India to fill gaps left by reduced Chinese imports.

2. Immigration Policy

• Kamala Harris: Supports expanding skilled worker visas, evidenced by high approval rates for H-1B visas during Biden's tenure.
• Donald Trump: Plans to tighten immigration rules, leading to a decline in H-1B visa approvals, which previously fell under his administration.

Implications:

Harris’s approach is favorable for India's IT services, while stricter immigration rms under Trump may adversely affect unskilled workers but could leave IT services largely unaffected. Historically, Democratic administrations have demonstrated a more favorable environment for H1-B approvals, achieving an aver approval rate of 94.6%. In contrast, Republican presidents have overseen an aver approval rate of 90.7% for H1-B applications.

3. Energy and Environment

• Kamala Harris: Proposes significant incentives for renewable energy, aligning with India’s goals to reduce fossil fuel dependence.
• Donald Trump: Prioritizes traditional energy sources and plans to revoke environmental regulations.

Implications:

Harris's policies would support India’s renewable energy initiatives, while Trump's focus on fossil fuels may result in lower global crude prices, beneficial for India's import needs.

4. Defence Relations

• Kamala Harris: Emphasizes strengning Indo-Pacific partnerships and techlogy transfer.
• Donald Trump: Revived Quad partnership and increased India’s defence imports through arms sales.

Implications:

Harris's focus could enhance India’s techlogical capabilities and align with US strategic interests, while Trump’s policies may boost defense imports but limit co-production initiatives.

5. Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals

• Kamala Harris: Aims to expand Medicare and lower drug prices through government negotiation with pharmaceutical companies.
• Donald Trump: Seeks to privatize Medicare and reduce government intervention in drug pricing.

Implications:

Harris’s healthcare policies could favor Indian generics if Medicare expands cover, while Trump’s deregulation might enhance market penetration for Indian pharmaceuticals.

As election outcome approaches, it is essential for India to assess potential shifts in US policies and prepare for ir implications across various sectors. Both candidates bring distinct policy frameworks that could shape future of US-India relations and affect India's political landscape.