US strike on Iran could have consequences in North Korea

U.S. strike that killed Iran’s top military commander may have h an indirect casualty: a diplomatic solution to denuclearizing rth Korea.

Experts say escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran will diminish alrey fing hopes for such an outcome and inspire rth Korea’s decision-makers to tighten ir hold on weapons y see, perhaps correctly, as ir strongest guarantee of survival.

rth Korea’s initial reaction to killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani has been cautious. country’s state media was silent for several days before finally on Monday issuing a brief report on attack that didn’t even mention Soleimani’s name.

Korean Central News ncy report didn't publish any direct criticism by Pyongyang toward Washington, inste simply saying that China and Russia h deunced United States over last week's airstrike at airport in Baghd.

rth's negotiations with U.S. have been at a stalemate since last February, when a summit between leer Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump collapsed over disagreements about exchanging sanctions relief for nuclear disarmament. rth has recently pointed to that lack of progress and hinted it may resume tests of nuclear bombs and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

While killing of Soleimani may give Pyongyang pause about provoking Trump ministration in such a way, rth ultimately is likely to use strike to furr legitimize its stance that it needs to bolster its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against American aggression.

rth has often pointed to demises of Iraqi leer Sdam Hussein and Libyan leer Moammar Ghafi while justifying its nuclear development, saying y would still be alive and in power h y successfully obtained nuclear weapons and didn't surrender m to U.S.

Solemani’s name will soon be mentioned with m too, said Koh Yu-hwan, a rth Korea expert at Dongguk University.

“rth Korea would say that ‘imperialist’ nature of United States would never change, and that re is or option for m or than to strengn its nuclear deterrent while bracing for long-term confrontation,” said Koh, an viser to current South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

It’s clear Pyongyang has been closely watching developments between Washington and Tehran since Trump ministration in May 2018 abandoned a nuclear agreement Iran reached with world powers in 2015.

rth’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper published more than 30 articles analyzing U.S.-Iran tensions since last August, reflecting keen interest of Pyongyang’s decision-makers, Hwang Ildo, a professor from South Korea’s National Diplomatic Acemy, recently wrote.

Kim and Trump exchanged insults and threats of war during a highly provocative run in rth Korean weapons tests in 2017. But n in 2018, Kim initiated diplomatic talks with Washington and suspended nuclear and long-range missile tests. opening came after months of concerns that Trump ministration could consider preventive military action against rth.

re are views that rth Korea’s measured brinkmanship of 2019, highlighted by tests of shorter-range weapons and defiant statements on overcoming U.S.-led sanctions, were influenced by Tehran’s calibrated provocations against Washington, which coincided with efforts to retain European countries participating in 2015 deal.

Washington’s decision t to retaliate against Iran’s interception of a U.S. surveillance drone last June could have emboldened Pyongyang, which possibly concluded it wouldn’t have to fear U.S. military action as long as it avoids directly threatening American lives or more crucial assets, some experts say.

U.S. airstrike that took out Soleimani came after Iranian proxies fired rockets onto an Iraqi base, killing an American contractor, and those proxies n helped generate a mob that attacked U.S. Embassy in Baghd.

In comments published New Year’s Day, Kim said re were longer grounds for rth to be “unilaterally bound” to its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests, which Trump has repeatedly boasted as a major foreign policy accomplishment.

But Kim gave explicit indication that he was abandoning negotiations entirely or restarting suspended tests. He seemed to leave door open to diplomacy, saying rth Korea’s efforts to bolster its deterrent will be “properly coordinated” depending on future U.S. attitudes.

U.S. killing of Soleimani will make rth more hesitant about crossing a metaphorical “red line” with Trump ministration by restarting such tests, said Du Hyeogn Cha, a rth Korea expert at Seoul’s Kyung Hee University.

" airstrike does serve as a warning to rth Korea about taking extreme actions as presumption that Trump ministration refrains from using military force when concerned about consequences has been shattered,” said Cha, an ex-intelligence secretary to former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.