US watching North Korea for ‘Christmas gift’ missile launch

U.S. is closely watching rth Korea for signs of a possible missile launch or nuclear test in coming days that officials are referring to as a “Christmas surprise.” A significant launch or test would mean end of rth Korea’s self-imposed moratorium and raise tensions in region. It would also be a major blow to one of Trump ministration’s major foreign policy initiatives: drive to get rth Korea back to negotiations to eliminate its nuclear weapons and missiles.

Earlier this month, rth conducted what U.S. officials say was an engine test. rth Korea described it as “crucial” and experts believe that it may have involved an engine for a launch vehicle or long-range missile. Officials worry that it could be a prelude to possible launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in coming days or weeks.

Any test involving an ICBM would have most serious impact on diplomatic effort because it would be considered a move by rth Korea to acquire ability to strike United States, or, even worse, to show y alrey have it.

“rth Korea has been vancing. It has been building new capabilities,” said Anthony Wier, a former State Department official who tracks nuclear disarmament for Friends Committee on National Legislation. “As long as that continues, y gain new capabilities to try new missiles to threaten us and our allies in new ways,”

rth Koreans warned of a possible “Christmas gift” in early December, saying Trump ministration was running out of time to salv nuclear negotiations, and it was up to U.S. to choose what “Christmas gift” it gets from rth.

Victor Cha, a Korea expert at Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a review of possible launch sites in rth Korea show that y are a “basically rey to go.” He said expected launch could be a test of a sea-based ballistic missile or a solid-fuel rocket.

Using solid fuel allows rth Korea to more quickly fuel up a rocket, providing less le time for U.S. or ors to prepare for a launch. Sea-based launches are also more difficult to locate and would give less warning or time for U.S. to react.

Eir one, he said, “would be a new of problem that U.S. would have to deal with.”

Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters earlier this week that U.S. has heard all talk of a possible upcoming test around Christmas.

“I’ve been watching Korean Peninsula for a quarter-century w. I’m familiar with ir tactics, with ir bluster,” he said. “We need to get serious and sit down and have discussions about a political agreement that denuclearizes peninsula. That is best way forward and arguably only way forward if we’re going to do something constructive.”

Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, special U.S. envoy for rth Korea, has also warned of a possible launch.

“We are fully aware of strong potential for rth Korea to conduct a major provocation in days ahe,” he said. “To say least, such an action will be most unhelpful in achieving lasting peace on Korean Peninsula.”

At a meeting in Singapore in June 2018, Trump and rth Korean leer Kim Jong Un issued a joint statement that said rth “commits to work toward complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.”

But negotiations stalled this year after U.S. rejected rth Korean demands for bro sanctions relief in exchange for a partial surrender of rth’s nuclear capabilities at Kim’s second summit with Trump last February.

Since n, Pyongyang’s testing and rhetoric has escalated.

Since Singapore summit, Cha said, Pyongyang has done more testing and grown ir missile capabilities. “By most metrics, Trump policy is t succeeding,” he said.

According to U.S. military, rth Korea has launched more than 20 missiles this year. y’ve included new s of missiles as well as a submarine-launched ballistic missile, in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

“ Trump ministration and President Trump himself deserves some credit for allowing diplomacy,” Wier said. “That’s a good thing. w is time to empower real diplomacy.”

rth Korea conducted a torrent of missile tests in 2017. It flew two new intermediate-range missiles over Japan and threatened to fire those weapons toward U.S. territory of Guam. It also tested three developmental ICBMs, including Hwasong-15 that demonstrated potential range to reach deep into U.S. mainland.

Those ICBM tests, however, showed clear sign that rth h perfected techlogy needed to ensure that a warhe could survive harsh conditions of atmospheric re-entry. According to experts at 38 rth, a website specializing in rth Korea studies, all of 2017 launches were on highly lofted trajectories and missiles’ reentry vehicles were t subjected to rmal and mechanical stresses that would be created by a full-range flight.

Experts said rth Korea needed ditional flight tests to determine reliability and accuracy of its ICBMs and establish a capable re-entry protection system.

Those 2017 tests triggered a sharp U.S. reaction. Trump said he would bring “fire and fury” on rth Korea and exchanged threats of total destruction with Kim, touching off fears of war on Korean Peninsula. Kim subsequently suspended ICBM and nuclear tests, allowing Trump to brag about that as a foreign policy win. rth has t performed any kwn tests of ICBMs since Hwasong-15 launch in vember 2017.

Esper said U.S. has a team on Korean peninsula w that has reached out to rth and is asking for meetings. At same time, he said U.S. military remains at a high level of reiness.

Esper has visited Korea twice this year since being sworn in as defense chief. A key discussion point has been reduction in U.S. military exercises with South Korea — a move by Trump ministration to appease rth Korea and woo m to negotiating table for denuclearization talks.

U.S. has about 28,000 troops in South Korea.